Energy Shortage​—What Can We Do About It?

HOW will the impending global shortage of energy affect you? Is it real? Or is it a hoax? Will it strike soon? Or is it only something for our children and grandchildren to worry about?

During the past year, the world found that these questions were thrust upon it. Energy suddenly became the number one concern of many millions of people.

In Greece, motorists were restricted to driving only on alternate weekends. Tanzania introduced gasoline rationing. Waits of several hours in long gas lines became commonplace in Turkey, Ireland and the United States.

“Pulling into a service station is beginning to seem like entering a combat zone,” said Time magazine in May. “Frazzled and angry drivers are starting to boil over.” In California, a frustrated man drove into a station ahead of a quarter-mile (.4-km) line of cars and used a pistol to keep other angry customers at bay while he pumped gas into his tank. Two New York motorists were killed in gas-line disputes. And a few beleaguered service-station attendants even took to carrying guns to keep the peace.

Dizzying Price Hikes

Added to the scarcity were staggering price jumps in many lands. By mid-1978, motorists in Turkey were paying more than three times as much as they paid for gasoline just a year before. Their price of about $2.80 per gallon ($.75 per L) was equaled by France, and in other countries the price actually passed $4 ($1 per L) by late 1979. Philippine drivers had to pay about two thirds more for gasoline than they did the previous year, as did Americans, who had long been spoiled by low fuel prices. And by late summer, Britons were paying almost 50 percent more for gas than they did last January. Even Japan’s already high prices climbed about 40 percent in a year.

Truck drivers particularly felt the crunch as diesel-fuel prices kept pace with gasoline. As one Ohio trucker complained: ‘When you get only three or four miles to the gallon (80 or 60 L/​100 km) that’s rough.’ And, of course, such increases in transportation costs affect the price of almost everything you purchase.

The price increases for home heating oil world wide are especially disconcerting because they have their greatest impact on the poor. People must have heat, even though they do without a car. Starting last winter, the average price for heating oil in the nations of the European Economic Community rose over 60 percent by fall and was still growing rapidly. The Swiss and the Germans had experienced a near doubling of oil prices by late summer. It is said that many canceled vacation plans for this reason.

In the United States, where heating oil prices were expected to rise sharply by this winter, the New York Times stated: “The average low-income family that uses oil (as do most families in the Northeast, whatever their income) is going to see its home-heating bill increase by $400 or more, a major financial blow.” Since heating costs for businesses go up at the same rate, prices of foods and other necessities get a boost as well.

All these price rises are pushing developing countries, many already enormously in debt, even farther toward the brink of bankruptcy, with ominous consequences for the world economic system. Badly needed modernization programs must be slowed or stopped.

All of this is making energy limitations more of a reality to the world. Is there anything that we personally can do about it, at least to ease the effect on our own lives and thereby contribute to overall energy conservation?

Ways That You Can Conserve

The fact that there is a great deal of energy being wasted world wide shows that there is room to make adjustments. According to World Bank figures, the average American uses more than twice as much energy as do individuals in the other industrialized countries.

Of course, some persons may feel that there is not really much point in trying to conserve energy. After all, how much difference will the frugality of a few people make? Regardless of what others do, there can be benefits to the one who conserves​—not only financial savings, but benefits in terms of health and safety.

Aside from owning more fuel-efficient autos, those who wish to conserve energy can reduce fuel consumption in any car. A major gas waster is speed. It is claimed that as much as one fifth or more of the gas can be saved by driving 55 miles per hour (89 km/​h) instead of 70 mph (113 km/​h). And there is another real benefit to those who drive more slowly​—safety. Though some do not agree that dropping the U.S. speed limit to 55 mph in 1974 was the entire reason, nevertheless, more than 10,000 fewer people died on American highways that year than in 1973. Also, the number of fatalities per 100 million miles (161 million km) driven dropped from 4.11 to 3.52. The Federal Republic of Germany, with no speed limit on superhighways, has more than twice this fatality rate.

In addition to the major energy savings from efficient autos and lower speeds, there are numerous small things that you can do to save gas. Though each may produce only small savings, if taken together the total can be significant. The chart on page 6 lists some of these ways to conserve.

Another method of saving energy is to avoid overheating homes and businesses in the winter and overcooling them in the summer. The benefits are more than financial. “One of the commonest causes of ‘catching cold,’” says Dr. Harry Johnson in Invitation to Health, “is the overheating of homes, shops, offices, schools, and almost every other place where people gather.” He notes that very warm overdry air “tends to dry out the air passages of the nose and throat and to lower their resistance to infection.” And lowering a home thermostat by just 6 degrees F (3.3 degrees C) may save 35 to 40 percent on fuel bills. Often it could be lowered even more if warmer clothing were worn indoors.

Even greater benefits can be gained by cutting back on the use of air conditioning. Most air-conditioned buildings have been kept colder than necessary for comfort. Of course, some persons like it cooler and some like it warmer, but tests show that 97 percent are comfortable at 78 degrees F (26° C). And it takes 60 percent more energy to cool a home to 72 degrees than to 78. As an energy-saving measure, the United States government issued a directive in July making it illegal to cool public buildings below 78 degrees. Dr. Stephen Rosen, an expert on weather and health, says: “Air conditioning probably postpones our acclimatization to summer heat,” and, as a result, “workers in air-conditioned quarters tend to have more ailments, feel more uncomfortable, have more headaches than those who work in non-air-conditioned spaces.”

There are many other things that you can do to conserve home heating fuel. The chart on page 7 lists some that, when combined, can significantly reduce your costs. For example, in many homes, adequate insulation alone can cut heating bills by as much as half.

Changes Ahead

Regardless of what people do in the way of conservation, the way of life to which many are accustomed may be in for a change. Will they finally have to give up traveling in the family automobile and go back to public transportation to save fuel? Will they be forced to cut back on their free-and-easy use of air conditioning, stop heating their backyard swimming pools, and dim streets now brilliantly lighted by advertising signs?

“But,” they may object, “not so fast. Before you take away all our laborsaving appliances, our electric can openers and carving knives, our electric shavers and toothbrushes, our electric lawn mowers and hedge clippers, our gasoline motorboats and snowmobiles​—what about some of the other sources of energy? Aren’t there other things we can fall back on if the oil runs out?”

Others protest that the shortage is not so bad as it is made out. They hear about the oil glut on the West Coast in the United States because of more oil coming in from the new Alaskan field than can be fed into Western refineries or transported to the East. There is said to be still a large surplus of natural gas, tied up in political wrangles about how much to charge for it. Mexico reports discovery of an oil field that may be larger than that on the Arabian Peninsula. What does all of this indicate?

In recent surveys in the United States, two thirds of the people voiced the opinion that the fuel shortage is a hoax. Some believe it was foisted on the public by conniving oil companies to fatten their profits. The situation is surely confused, and confusing. Nonetheless, we need to face the realities of the immediate future. Every one of us is concerned, because our daily lives will be affected by the outcome of the fuel crisis.

Other Sources of Energy

It is true there are many possible sources of energy to which we might turn to lessen our dependence on petroleum. Coal is still abundant in many parts of the earth, enough for a long time to come. Already energy from nuclear fission has become an important part of the electric power supply in several countries. The reserves of uranium appear likely to outlast the petroleum, but they are becoming more expensive to mine and refine. Looking farther ahead, we are told that nuclear fusion promises unlimited energy drawn from the oceans’ water.

The energy in sunlight is constantly supplied from an inexhaustible source. Man has long used power from the sun indirectly, by burning wood, and through water-powered generators and windmills. It may be possible now to generate electricity from the sun’s heat and light. Any practical system for getting power from the sun would provide an ideal solution to the energy problem, because the sun shines everywhere.

Of course, when we talk about replacing one kind of energy with another, we recognize that not all kinds are equally useful. Coal can replace oil to drive electric turbines or locomotives, but not to run automobiles. Nuclear power is practical only in very large power plants, but solar power might be found useful in units small enough for individual homes. Hydroelectric power must be carried on high-power lines from river dams to cities. Geothermal heat is useful in volcanic regions, but not everyone lives next to a volcano.

Also, some energy sources cause pollution, which becomes intolerable on a large scale. Coal furnaces put smoke and soot into the air and ash heaps on the ground, hydrocarbon fuels are responsible for smog, and nuclear energy worries us with its radioactive emissions and long-lived wastes. Wind, water and solar power are free of such handicaps.

Financial interests rooted in the present economic system also have to be considered. Large investments of capital in power plants and extensive distribution networks might become obsolete with some foreseeable shifts in energy sources. There will be resistance to change, even a change that might be clearly desirable or inevitable in the long run.

[Box/​Picture on page 6]

Fuel saving when you drive

DO

Use radial tires

Use “low friction” or synthetic oil

Keep engine in tune

Stop engine when necessary to wait 30 seconds or more

DO NOT

Use snow tires any longer than necessary

Carry unnecessary items in trunk (reduce weight)

Start car moving in “jackrabbit” fashion

[Box/​Picture on page 7]

Fuel saving at home

DO

Add insulation to ceilings and walls

Shut off heating in unused rooms and close doors

Keep drapes and furniture from blocking heat outlets

Wash and rinse laundry in cold water

Use low-wattage or fluorescent bulbs where possible

Shut off lights not being used

Close fireplace or wood-stove damper when not in use

DO NOT

Let hot water run while wet shaving

How Much Energy Is in the Ground?

COAL and petroleum have been main sources of energy since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the early 19th century. But they are energy sources that are generally classed as not renewable. So the burning question for us today is, How long can we depend on these fossil fuels before they are all used up?

Coal was the first to be exploited as Europe and the United States plunged into the industrial age. It came to be used in great quantities in the manufacture of steel and cement. Coal supplied power to railway locomotives on land and steamships at sea. We burned it to heat our dwellings and workshops. Beginning in the late 1800’s, coal was also used to run electric generators in central power plants.

When petroleum became available, its abundance and low cost led to its use in place of coal for many purposes. Importantly, the convenience of liquid fuel and the ease of igniting it promoted the rapid proliferation of automobiles for private use, trucks for hauling freight, and airplanes for rapid travel. Industrialized nations came to rely heavily on petroleum as an indispensable source of energy.

Profligate Use of a Resource

The promise of fabulous profits prompted enterprising oil drillers to get the first foothold in rich new oil fields. The natural gas that blew out of many wells was considered only a by-product, sometimes almost a nuisance. At the wellhead, its value was rated so low that it was often burned off merely to get rid of it. But with networks of pipelines, it could be profitably delivered to industrial plants and ordinary homes at very low cost.

In oil-rich countries the profligate use of energy was encouraged in every way. It was so cheap that waste was condoned, and conservation was not worth thinking about. Forward-looking persons realized that this could not go on forever; sometime the pools of petroleum must become exhausted. But the known reserves of petroleum at a given time were sufficient for many years’ use, and discoveries of new fields kept adding to the reserve faster than it was depleted.

Mass production of automobiles brought their price within the reach of nearly everyone, and automobile manufacturers grew to be giant corporations, vying to outsell one another with alluring gadgets added to each new year’s models. Governments taxed the sale of cheap gasoline and built superhighways everywhere. Cars were sold by the tens of millions to people eager to travel ever faster and farther. Oil companies followed the policy of looking for maximum immediate profits, and little concern was shown for the shortages that were bound to fall on a future generation. But now that generation has arrived.

Determining How Much Is Available

Earlier optimism about how long the petroleum would last was shattered by the political embargo imposed by the Arab nations in 1973. An international panel of experts in 1978 warned that the supply of oil would fail to meet the increasing demand at the latest within 20 years, and perhaps in as few as five. Recent events have prompted alarm that a permanent world shortage is likely by the early 1980’s.

Serious problems are suddenly upon us. The supply of oil is no longer determined solely by the technological ability to find and produce it. It is affected even more by political maneuverings. Governments have imposed complex tax structures and artificial price controls. Oil executives complain that there remains little incentive to undertake expensive drilling to find new fields or to build the new refineries needed to supply the relentlessly growing demand.

Multinational corporations have promoted the production of oil in once backward countries for export to industrial countries. Now the most plentiful supplies of oil and the largest consumers of oil are found in different, often antagonistic, political domains. The OPEC nations, complaining that they had been exploited by more powerful nations, banded together to restrict the supply and thus raise prices and enforce political demands. To stave off the threat of new embargoes, political leaders talk about conservation and alternate energy sources. However, their proposals to reduce speed limits on the highways, to turn down the thermostat on heaters, and greatly to increase the price of fuels meet with indifference and even indignant resistance.

But the fact must be faced. No matter what steps are taken to conserve and stretch out the supply, the world’s petroleum is already falling short of the demand. It is tantalizing to be told that the rock pores of exhausted oil pools still retain two to three times as much oil as has been pumped out, but this can be recovered only in small part by expensive methods. Even the discovery of large new fields, such as those in Alaska and in Mexico, can do no more than postpone for a few years the ultimate depletion of the world’s petroleum. It will inevitably run out in the next few decades. What then?

[Chart on page 10]

ENERGY FROM: USE PER YEAR: WHAT’S LEFT:

U.S. WORLD U.S. WORLD

Petroleum 38 107 175 3,300

Natural Gas 20 37 200 1,500

Coal 13 94 11,000 35,000

Hydroelectricity 3 12 Renewable

Nuclear Fission 3 5 230 670

TOTAL 77 255

The numbers in this table are in terms of the relative energy equivalent of each source. The units are quadrillion (10¹⁵) of British thermal units. One Quad is 1,000,000,000,000,000 B.T.U. One Quad is equivalent to 170 million barrels of oil, or one trillion cubic feet of natural gas, or 40 million tons of coal, or 2100 tons of uranium oxide and is sufficient to generate 100 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. The numbers in the first column are fairly exact. Those in the last two columns are estimates.

Should We Go Back to Coal?

UNTIL 1940, coal was the world’s chief commercial source of energy. Since then the amount of coal mined has changed but little, but the use of petroleum and natural gas has grown so fast that coal now supplies only 30 percent of the world’s energy. This has not been because of any problem of supplying coal, but basically because petroleum was cheaper. If oil comes to be too expensive and finally runs out, can we not switch back to coal?

There is certainly plenty of coal. There is enough in known deposits to supply all the energy needed for at least 150 years. Many new mines would have to be opened, and transportation facilities by railroad and steamship would have to be expanded to match, but the coal is there.

For generating electricity and for manufacturing, coal is a practical substitute for oil. But to heat the home, it has obvious drawbacks.

Heating Our Homes

Many of our older readers will recall the daily wintertime chore of shoveling coal into the furnace out of a black, dusty bin, and later shoveling the even dustier ashes into barrels to be taken to the dump. And some skill and patience were needed to kindle a bed of coals after the fire had gone out. When these onerous chores are compared with the convenience of simply adjusting a thermostat that automatically turns on the gas or oil-injection device and ignites it from the pilot light, few would relish a return to the “coal age.”

Remember, too, how in towns or cities where everyone heated with coal, a freshly fallen blanket of snow was quickly darkened by the soot falling from hundreds of chimneys. A generation accustomed to the cleanliness and convenience of petroleum fuels will be reluctant to make room again for a coal bin in the house.

What About Automobiles?

When it comes to running our automobiles without gasoline, coal is out of the question. Only liquid or gaseous fuels will work in an internal-combustion engine. But, as mentioned above, coal differs from petroleum largely in its hydrogen content. Coal can be hydrogenated to convert it to a liquid or gaseous fuel. This was done on a large scale to supply Germany’s need for gasoline in World War II, and the process is used in South Africa today. However, it will require a major mobilization of the petroleum and chemical industries, probably with government subsidies, to produce synthetic fuels on the scale needed to replace oil. In the near future, such fuels will be available only in small quantities and at very high prices.

A more immediate possibility is to power automobiles with electric storage batteries. The electric automobile is already fairly common in some cities, providing local transportation for individuals or families. The batteries are kept charged by plugging them into a utility outlet in the garage. However, the speed, range, and capacity of such cars are much less than today’s average motorist demands.

Larger electric-powered cars or trains are well suited to mass transportation. Electric trolley cars, drawing power from an overhead wire, were common in city and interurban travel before automobiles and buses displaced them. High-speed electric trains are still common in Europe and Japan, as well as in metropolitan subways. All of this is compatible with power generated in central plants from coal, but it implies a shift from the individual motorcar back to mass transportation.

Pollution Problems Continue

By a change from oil to coal, air pollution will be changed, but not eliminated. One of the principal contributors to smog, the partially burned hydrocarbons from automobile exhausts, will cease to be a problem, but the oxides of nitrogen and sulfur may be as bad or worse with coal. More efficient combustion will have to be achieved to avoid a return to the smoke-laden atmosphere of industrial cities of 50 years ago.

Another kind of pollution is unavoidable and irreversible as long as any kind of fossil fuel is burned. This is the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, we have taken so much carbon out of the earth and put it into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide that its global concentration has increased by 5 percent. Some scientists believe that the climate may be delicately balanced at the normal concentration, and if this is disturbed too much the whole earth may be warmed enough to melt the Arctic and Antarctic ice caps. There is even concern that it could get too hot to support life.

While other sources of energy may ultimately supply the bulk of man’s needs, it appears that none of them can be developed soon enough to compensate for the rapidly vanishing reserves of petroleum. The only energy source that can be exploited soon enough to fill the gap is coal.

But could the use of coal, then, really be the “solution” to the energy problem? The Bible shows that God’s purpose is for all this earth to become a paradise. Dependence on an energy source that pollutes the environment is not consistent with that. Furthermore, the Scriptures state that God made the earth to be inhabited forever, with God-fearing people enjoying eternal life on it. (Isa. 45:18; Ps. 96:10-13; John 17:3) Surely, then, he must have made available stores of suitable energy that would last beyond the 1980’s​—yes, beyond the next 150 years.

What energy sources fit such a description? How can they be utilized? Future issues of Awake! will consider these questions, as well as what men are doing to cope with their immediate problem.