For example: A year ago there was a feeling that the world was on the verge of something really big​—a major change for the better. The Vietnam war seemed to be winding down, there was a growing spirit of détente between the United States and Russia. Red China had come into the United Nations, and its massive doors were slowly and steadily opening up to the outside world. Many nations were in the midst of an economic “boom.” But the months that followed sent the world into a virtual tailspin, leaving people somewhat bewildered by the suddenness of the changes.

Thus, when 1974 came on the scene it found Britishers suddenly thrust into a three-day workweek, Frenchmen paying $1.30 a gallon for gasoline (and still better off than Italians, who were paying $1.45 a gallon), while people in Japan were asking themselves how their booming economy​—that had zoomed them up to the position of the third-greatest commercial power on earth—​could have proved so vulnerable to the Arab states’ oil embargo, not even quick efforts at appeasement doing much to remove the bleakness of future economic prospects. And reviewing the political scene in the United States, a writer in the Seattle Times said:

“The things which happened in American politics [in 1973] were so bizarre it almost seemed that some diabolical scriptwriter was sitting up nights cackling, creating a new shock for the next day.”

The Disturbing Factor

What is it that has shaken people up so much? It is the effect these things have had on their hopes for the future. One Britisher said of the situation in England: “This is not a recession yet​—it is just the rehearsal.” Rather than planning several years ahead, the confused attitude of so many was expressed by the Los Angeles woman who said: “One year at a time is all we can handle.”

After natural disasters​—floods, earthquakes, droughts—​or temporary upheavals such as wars, people generally feel they still can ‘pick up the pieces and start over again,’ working for a better future. What is now so disturbing and frustrating to many is that they have seen repeated examples of how unstable and uncertain the world’s basic systems are. The giant systems that men have proudly built up now prove surprisingly fragile and subject to becoming disjointed when least expected.

Will the System Change?

For there to be genuinely better times, world leaders will have to bring about a drastic reversal in all fields of human endeavor. They will have to change the way that the entire system of things is going. More than that, they will have to bring about fundamental changes in the very disposition of people. Do you think all this is likely?

Among major efforts under way to bring in a new era is that of greater cooperation between the world’s “superpowers.” While visiting West Germany, Soviet Communist party leader Leonid Brezhnev said of improved Soviet-American relations:

“On the whole, one can perhaps say that our planet today is closer to durable, lasting peace than ever before. And the Soviet Union is shifting all its weight to buttress this beneficial tendency.”

There can be no doubt that diplomatic maneuverings of major importance are going on today at a pace and with an intensity seldom before seen​—particularly in peacetime. Many observers would agree with Spartak Beglov of the Soviet press agency Novosti that “a new political climate is in creation” world wide. They foresee tremendous benefits if true cooperation can be achieved among the world’s great powers, China included.

Hopes, too, are expressed that the world’s economic system will stabilize, that the recent crises will jolt the nations into bringing about long-needed changes or adjustments, that new energy sources​—solar energy converters, for instance—​will be developed or old sources will be used more efficiently, and that, as a result, a new wave of prosperity and abundance will again appear.

Yes, you can be sure that 1974 will see mighty efforts made to try to inject new life into the world’s systems. And things may indeed appear to be ‘on the upswing’ again. But can you confidently put your trust in these developments to bring lasting results?

Optimism is certainly better than pessimism. Even more vital, however, is realism, because without it optimism becomes just wishful thinking that leads to disillusionment. How realistic, then, are the world’s efforts to create a new era of lasting peace and security?

Facing the Facts as They Are

Many, many peace treaties and agreements have been signed by nations in the past, being hailed at the time as giving promise of ‘lasting peace.’ But each brief period of calm was later shattered by wars that became successively more costly and hideous. No matter how solemn and sincere, peace pacts among nations have never produced genuine, lasting peace and security. Selfish interests have always acted like a corroding acid that eventually dissolves the bonds of union and cooperation. Would you say that the nations are less selfish today than in the past?

Ask yourself also: If the nations and leaders in various fields are really capable of bringing about the vast changes needed for genuinely better times, why has this not been done already? Or why, at least, have we not seen some steady, gradual improvement? Surely it is not because insufficient time, effort and money have been spent in an attempt to do so. Yet what do we see?

As time passes, the problems, world problems, are multiplying instead of lessening. More and more authorities express the belief that these problems​—growing shortages of basic commodities, an “exploding” world population, the moral breakdown, pollution—​are actually getting out of hand. Thus, an article published by the Indiana Pharos-Tribune & Press said:

“One fundamental meaning of the incredible year 1973 is that, across nearly every front of human endeavor, this nation and the world are having it driven home that their problems are approaching the peril point.

“A key word that lies at the root of this phenomenon is a jaw-crusher: magnification. You name the problem. If it once seemed manageable, or at least bearable, it seems today to be soaring to proportions that threaten to take it beyond our mastery. . . .

“The world’s growth in numbers and complexity has magnified the trouble until the danger is sinking into everybody’s bones.”

The problem goes far deeper than what most persons imagine. It really reaches down to the foundations of human society. For the principal source of worsening world conditions must, after all, be found in people, in their way of life, the standards​—or lack of them—​by which they live and which guide them in their dealings with one another. Pointing in this direction, in his book Future Shock, author Alvin Toffler stated:

“What is occurring now is not a crisis of capitalism but of industrial society itself, regardless of its political form.

“We are simultaneously experiencing a youth revolution, a sexual revolution, a racial revolution, a colonial revolution, an economic revolution, and the most rapid and deep-going technological revolution in history.

“We are living through the general crisis of industrialism. In a word, we are in the midst of the super-industrial revolution.”

Problems Global Now

What is happening in our generation is very different from what has happened in any other time. In the past, the problems in one land or area were contained there. It took years, generations, even centuries for the effects of most things to reach other areas.

But that is not the case now. Today the world is closely knit, tightly interwoven through rapid communications, air travel, economic and political interchange. Thus, a drastic change in one area is quickly felt in another. That is why the entire world suffered from the effects of World War I, the great depression, World War II, the Vietnam war, and now the energy crisis.

Authorities admit that the global problems of this system seem certain to grow bigger. One reason why is the relentless population growth, especially in lands that can least afford it. According to the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, D.C., the world population at the end of 1973 stood at 3,900,000,000. And it is increasing at a 2-percent rate each year. That means that during 1974 the world will experience a net increase of some 78 million people!

Thus, the problems multiply in speed and scope. It is no wonder that more and more people are becoming “emotionally disturbed.” Mounting pressures in all directions render growing numbers of people incapable of handling them. That is why mental institutions are crowded, why so many are behaving in an unbalanced way, even going berserk and committing mass murder. What is now happening on a large scale can be compared to what happens in battle when, because of too much pressure, soldiers become ‘shell-shocked.’