Could It Come Back?

According to many experts, it is not a question of if such a vicious flu virus will return but of when and how it will return. In fact, some expect a significant new influenza outbreak every 11 years or so and a severe one approximately every 30 years. According to these predictions, mankind is overdue for another pandemic.

The medical journal Vaccine reported in 2003: “It has been 35 years since the last influenza pandemic, and the longest interval between pandemics recorded with certainty is 39 years.” The article continued: “The pandemic virus may emerge in China or a nearby country and could include surface antigens or virulence factors derived from animal influenza viruses.”

The Vaccine article predicted concerning the virus: “It will spread rapidly throughout the world. Several waves of infection will occur. Morbidity will be extensive in all age groups, and there will be widespread disruption of social and economic activity in all countries. Excess mortality will be evident in most if not all age groups. It is unlikely that health care systems in even the most economically developed countries will be able to adequately cope with the demand for health care services.”

Just how alarming is such a scenario? John M. Barry, author of the book The Great Influenza, provides this perspective: “A terrorist with a nuclear weapon is every national politician’s nightmare. A new influenza pandemic should be.”

Hence, there is this disquieting question: Could there be a repeat of 1918-19? Note what is said in a paper from London’s National Institute for Medical Research: “In some ways, conditions prevail as they did in 1918: there is a huge volume of international travel due to the development of transport, there are a number of war-zones with their inherent problems of malnutrition and poor hygiene, the world population has grown to six and a half billion and a greater proportion of this population is living in urban situations many of which have decaying infrastructures in terms of waste disposal.”

Concludes a well-respected U.S. authority: “Put simply, each year brings us closer to the next pandemic.”