Signs of Trouble?

“Veu Lesa, a 73-year-old villager in Tuvalu, does not need scientific reports to tell him that the sea is rising,” says The New Zealand Herald. “The beaches of his childhood are vanishing. The crops that used to feed his family have been poisoned by salt water. In April [2007], he had to leave his home when a spring tide flooded it, and the waves showered it with rocks and debris.”

FOR the people of Tuvalu, a group of islands no more than 13 feet [4 m] above sea level, global warming is, not abstract science, but “a daily reality,” says the Herald.a Thousands have already left the islands, and many more are preparing to go.

Meanwhile, Robert, who lives in Brisbane, Australia, can water his garden only on certain days, using a bucket​—not a hose. And unless he goes to a car wash that recycles water, he can wash only parts of his car​—mirrors, windows, and registration plates. Why such restrictions? Robert lives in a part of the country that is suffering from what has been called the worst drought in a century. Other areas are even worse off. Are the problems in Australia and Tuvalu evidence of global warming?

What Some Predict

Many believe that human activities are a major cause of global warming, which may have catastrophic consequences for the climate and the environment. For example, large-scale melting of land-based ice and the expansion of the oceans as water warms could cause sea levels to rise drastically. Low-lying islands such as Tuvalu could disappear, as could large parts of the Netherlands and Florida, to name just two other areas. Millions of people could be displaced from such places as Shanghai and Calcutta, as well as parts of Bangladesh.

At the same time, rising temperatures could intensify storms, floods, and droughts. In the Himalayas, disappearing glaciers​—from areas that feed seven river systems—​could cause shortages of freshwater for 40 percent of the world’s population. Also at risk are thousands of species of animals, including polar bears, whose hunting grounds are largely on the ice. Indeed, reports already indicate that many bears are losing weight and some are even starving.

Rising temperatures may also foster the spread of disease by enabling mosquitoes, ticks, and other disease-carrying organisms, including fungi, to spread farther afield. “The dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons,” says the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “The effects may be less dramatic in the short term . . . , but over the next three to four decades climate change could cause irremediable harm to the habitats upon which human societies depend for survival.” Adding an even more ominous note, some scientists believe that changes attributed to global warming are occurring faster than they had expected.

What are we to make of these predictions? Is life on earth really at a crossroads? Skeptics of global warming say that such dire predictions are groundless. Others are not sure. So, what is the truth? Is earth’s future​—and ours—​in peril?

[Footnote]

Is Planet Earth Under Threat?

GLOBAL WARMING has been described as the greatest threat facing humanity. What worries researchers, says the journal Science, “is the prospect that we’ve started a slow-moving but relentless avalanche of change.” Skeptics question this assertion. True, many agree that the earth is warming, but they are uncertain of both the causes and the consequences. Human activities may be a factor, they say, but not necessarily the primary one. Why the disagreement?

For one thing, the physical processes that underlie global climate systems are complex and not fully understood. In addition, interest groups tend to put their own spin on the scientific data, such as that used to show why temperatures are rising.

Temperature Rise​—Is It Real?

According to a recent report of the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming is “unequivocal,” or a fact; and “very likely,” mankind is largely to blame. Some who differ with this conclusion, especially in regard to the human factor, concede that cities may be heating up because they are growing in size. Moreover, concrete and steel readily absorb the sun’s heat and tend to cool down slowly at night. But urban readings, skeptics say, do not reflect the trend in rural areas and can distort global statistics.

On the other hand, Clifford, a village elder who lives on an island off the coast of Alaska, says he has seen changes with his own eyes. The people of his village travel across sea ice to the mainland to hunt caribou and moose. Rising temperatures, though, are making the traditional lifestyle impossible. “The currents have changed, ice conditions have changed, and the freeze-up of the Chukchi Sea has . . . changed,” says Clifford. The sea used to freeze up at the end of October, he explains, but now it does not freeze until late December.

In 2007, warming was also evident in the Northwest Passage, which was fully open for the first time in recorded history. “What we’ve seen this year fits the profile of lengthening melt seasons,” said a senior scientist for the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the United States.

The Greenhouse Effect​—Vital for Life

A reason given for such changes is an intensification of the greenhouse effect, natural phenomena vital for life on earth. When energy from the sun reaches the earth, about 70 percent is absorbed, heating air, land, and sea. If it were not for this mechanism, the average surface temperature would be about zero degrees Fahrenheit (-18 degrees Celsius). Eventually, the absorbed heat is released back into space as infrared radiation, thus preventing the earth from overheating. But when pollutants change the composition of the atmosphere, less heat escapes. This can cause earth’s temperatures to rise.

Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane, as well as water vapor. The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased markedly over the past 250 years, since the start of the industrial revolution and the increased use of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil. Another greenhouse-enhancing factor seems to be the rising population of farm animals, whose digestive processes produce methane and nitrous oxide. Some researchers point to other causes of warming that they say occurred before humans could have influenced climate.

Just Another Fluctuation?

Skeptics of human-induced warming point out that earth’s temperature has undergone substantial fluctuations in the past. They point to the so-called ice ages, when the earth was supposedly much cooler than it is now; and in support of natural warming, they cite evidence that cold regions, such as Greenland, at one time supported vegetation that prefers warm areas. Of course, scientists concede that the further back they go, the more their certainty about climate diminishes.

What may have caused temperatures to vary significantly before human influence was a factor? Possible causes include sunspots and solar flares, which correlate with fluctuations in solar energy output. Additionally, earth’s orbit moves in cycles that take many thousands of years and that affect our planet’s distance from the sun. There is also the influence of volcanic dust and changes in oceanic currents.

Climate Modeling

If earth’s temperature is rising​—no matter what the cause or causes—​how will it affect us and the environment? Precise predictions are hard to make. Nowadays, though, scientists have access to powerful computers, which they use to create digital simulations of the climate system. Incorporated into their models are the laws of physics, climate data, and natural phenomena that influence climate.

Simulations enable scientists to experiment with climate in ways that are otherwise impossible. For instance, they can “change” solar output to see how this affects polar ice, air and sea temperatures, evaporation rates, atmospheric pressure, cloud formation, wind, and rainfall. They can “create” volcanic eruptions and examine the effects of volcanic dust on weather. And they can examine the effects of human population growth, deforestation, land use, changes in the emission of greenhouse gases, and so on. Scientists hope that their models will progressively become more accurate and reliable.

How precise are present models? Much, of course, depends on the accuracy of the data and the amount of it fed into the machines. Hence, climate projections vary from the mild to the catastrophic. Even so, says Science, “surprises could spring from the [natural] climate system.” And some already have, such as the unusually rapid rate of Arctic melting, which has amazed many climatologists. Still, even if policymakers had only a rough idea of the consequences of present action or inaction, they could make decisions today that might reduce problems tomorrow.

With that possibility in mind, the IPCC examined six different sets of computer-simulated scenarios​—ranging from unrestricted greenhouse-gas production to business as usual to severe restraint—​each producing different climatic and environmental results. In the light of the predictions, analysts urge a variety of measures. These include mandatory limits on fossil-fuel emissions, penalties for offenders, more nuclear power generation, and the introduction of more environmentally friendly technologies.

Are the Models Reliable?

Present forecasting methods “oversimplify poorly understood climate processes” and “simply ignore others,” say critics. They also point to the inconsistencies in computed projections. One scientist who participated in the IPCC discussions said: “There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why.”a

Some would argue, of course, that using an element of doubt as justification for doing nothing is gambling with the future. “How would we explain this to our children?” they say. Whether the climate models are accurate or not, we can be certain that the earth is in serious trouble. Its life-sustaining environment is being assaulted by pollution, deforestation, urbanization, and the extinction of species, to name just a few factors that no one can successfully dispute.

In view of what we know, can we expect mankind as a whole to make an about-face so as to spare our beautiful home​—and us too? What is more, if human activity is causing global warming, we may have only years, not centuries, to make the needed changes. At the very least, making such changes would mean promptly addressing the root causes of earth’s problems​—human greed, self-interest, ignorance, inept government, and apathy. Is such a prospect probable or just wishful thinking? If the latter, are we without hope? That question will be discussed in the next article.

[Footnote]

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HOW DO YOU MEASURE EARTH’S TEMPERATURE?

To illustrate the challenges, how would you measure the temperature of a single, large room? Where, for example, would you put the thermometer? Heat rises, so air near the ceiling will likely be warmer than air lower down. The reading will also be affected if the thermometer is near a window, in direct sunlight, or in the shade. Color may also contribute to different readings, since dark surfaces absorb more heat.

One measurement, therefore, would likely be insufficient. You would have to take readings at several points and then calculate an average. And readings may change from day to day and from season to season. So to get a true average, you would have to take many readings over an extended period. Imagine how complicated it is, then, to measure the overall temperature of earth’s surface, atmosphere, and oceans! Yet, such statistics are essential to the accurate assessment of climate change.

[Credit Line]

NASA photo

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IS NUCLEAR POWER A SOLUTION?

Energy consumption worldwide is breaking record after record. Since the burning of oil and coal produces greenhouse gases, some governments are taking a closer look at nuclear power as a cleaner alternative. But it too presents challenges.

The International Herald Tribune reports that in France, one of the world’s most nuclear-reliant countries, up to 670 billion cubic feet [19 billion cubit meters] of water is required annually to cool reactors. In the heat wave of 2003, the hot water normally expelled from France’s reactors threatened to raise the temperature of rivers to environmentally damaging levels. Hence, some power stations had to shut down. This situation is expected to worsen if global temperatures rise.

“We’re going to have to solve the climate-change problem if we’re going to have nuclear power,” said nuclear engineer David Lochbaum of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

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WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS IN 2007

The year 2007 saw a record number of weather-related disasters for which the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs issued 14 emergency appeals​—4 more than the previous record, set in 2005. Listed here are just some of the disasters that occurred in 2007. Keep in mind, of course, that individual events do not necessarily indicate a long-term trend.

◼ Britain: More than 350,000 people were affected by the worst flooding in over 60 years. England and Wales saw the wettest May to July since record-keeping began in 1766.

◼ West Africa: Floods affected 800,000 people in 14 countries.

◼ Lesotho: High temperatures and drought destroyed crops. Some 553,000 people may require food aid.

◼ Sudan: Torrential rains left 150,000 people without shelter. At least 500,000 received aid.

◼ Madagascar: Cyclones and heavy rains lashed the island, displacing 33,000 people and destroying the crops of 260,000.

◼ North Korea: An estimated 960,000 were severely hit by widespread flooding, landslides, and mud slides.

◼ Bangladesh: Flooding affected 8.5 million people and killed over 3,000, as well as 1.25 million farm animals. Nearly 1.5 million homes were either damaged or destroyed.

◼ India: Floods affected 30 million people.

◼ Pakistan: Cyclonic rains left 377,000 people displaced and hundreds dead.

◼ Bolivia: More than 350,000 were affected by flooding, and 25,000 were displaced.

◼ Mexico: Regional flooding left at least 500,000 homeless and affected more than a million.

◼ Dominican Republic: Prolonged heavy rainfall caused floods and landslides, displacing 65,000.

◼ United States: Fires across tinder-dry southern California forced 500,000 residents to flee their homes.

[Credit Line]

Based on NASA/​Visible Earth imagery

Earth’s Future​—In Whose Hands?

“GLOBAL WARMING presents the greatest test we humans have yet faced,” asserted the October 2007 edition of National Geographic. If we are to meet that challenge successfully, said the magazine, we need to “move quickly and decisively​—and with a maturity we’ve rarely shown as a society or a species.”

Will such maturity rise to the fore? Working against it are many factors: apathy, greed, ignorance, vested interests, the scramble for wealth in developing lands, and the business-as-usual philosophy of millions who want to maintain a high-energy-consuming lifestyle.

An ancient prophet of God gives us a realistic appraisal of our capacity to solve our ethical, social, and governmental problems. He wrote: “To earthling man his way does not belong. It does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his step.” (Jeremiah 10:23) Mankind’s tragic history underscores those words. And today, although armed with significant developments in science and technology, we are faced with previously unimaginable threats. So how confident can we be that tomorrow will be better?

It is true that there has been a lot of talk about tackling climate change and other harmful trends, but little has been done. For example, how did the nations respond in 2007 when the Northwest Passage opened up for navigation for the first time? An editorial in New Scientist magazine answers: “With an unseemly scramble to lay claim to the exposed chunks of continental shelf so they [could] drill for more oil and gas.”

Nearly 2,000 years ago, the Bible accurately foretold that humans would reach the point where they would be “ruining the earth.” (Revelation 11:18) Clearly, the world needs both a leader who has the wisdom and power to achieve the desired goals and subjects who will submit to him. Could a sincere and brilliant political leader or scientist fill that role? The Bible answers: “Do not put your trust in nobles, nor in the son of earthling man, to whom no salvation belongs.”​—Psalm 146:3.

Earth’s Future​—In Good Hands!

There is only one Leader who can successfully address the problems confronting the world. Concerning him, the Bible foretold: “Upon him the spirit of Jehovah [God] must settle down, the spirit of wisdom and of understanding, the spirit of counsel and of mightiness, the spirit of knowledge and of the fear of Jehovah . . . With righteousness he must judge the lowly ones, . . . and with the spirit of his lips he will put the wicked one to death.”​—Isaiah 11:2-5.

Who is that One? He is none other than Jesus Christ, who lovingly laid down his life in our behalf. (John 3:16) Now a mighty spirit entity, Jesus has been authorized and empowered by God to rule over the earth.​—Daniel 7:13, 14; Revelation 11:15.

Contributing to Jesus’ qualifications is his vast knowledge of God’s creation, which he acquired before coming to earth. In fact, untold aeons ago when God formed the physical universe, Jesus was his “master worker.” (Proverbs 8:22-31) Think about that: Jesus, the very one who helped make the earth and all living things, will take the lead in undoing the damage caused by human folly.

Who will Christ’s subjects be? They will be truly meek and righteous people, ones who know the true God, Jehovah, and obey Jesus Christ as Ruler. (Psalm 37:11, 29; 2 Thessalonians 1:7, 8) Jesus said that they “will inherit the earth,” which will be transformed into a paradise.​—Matthew 5:5; Isaiah 11:6-9; Luke 23:43.

How can you put yourself in line to share in the fulfillment of the Bible’s promises? Jesus himself answers: “This means everlasting life, their taking in knowledge of you, the only true God, and of the one whom you sent forth, Jesus Christ.”​—John 17:3.

Yes, our planet may appear to be in peril, but its continued existence as a home for mankind is not in doubt. Rather, peril awaits those who continue to show disrespect for God’s creation and who refuse to obey Jesus Christ. Hence, Jehovah’s Witnesses encourage you to take in the knowledge that leads to everlasting life.

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BEYOND THE REACH OF SCIENCE

Knowing full well the risks involved, millions of people harm their minds and bodies by using recreational drugs, abusing alcohol, and smoking tobacco. To them, life is anything but a sacred gift from God. (Psalm 36:9; 2 Corinthians 7:1) Regrettably, a similar godless attitude toward the earth has contributed to its woes.

What, then, is the solution? Can it be found in science and secular education? Not really. What is essentially a spiritual problem calls for a spiritual solution. The Bible acknowledges this fact. Hence, it promises that the time will come when humans “will not do any harm or cause any ruin” to the earth because it will be “filled with the knowledge of Jehovah as the waters are covering the very sea.”​—Isaiah 11:9.

[Picture on page 8, 9]

Under Christ’s rule the righteous will share in making the earth into a global paradise