The Perils of Proliferation

During the Cold War, while relying upon a balance of terror to keep the peace, the superpowers agreed to permit the development of nuclear know-how in pursuit of peaceful ends but to restrict its use in making nuclear weapons. In 1970 the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty took effect; it was later ratified by some 140 nations. Yet, potential nuclear powers, such as Argentina, Brazil, India, and Israel, have refused to sign even to this day.

In 1985, however, another potential nuclear power, North Korea, did sign. So when it announced its withdrawal from the treaty on March 12, 1993, the world logically reacted with uneasiness. The German newsmagazine Der Spiegel noted: “The notice of withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty creates a precedent: There is now the threat of a nuclear arms race, starting in Asia, that could become more dangerous than was the bomb rivalry between the superpowers.”

With nationalism giving birth to new nations at an amazing rate, the number of nuclear powers will probably increase. (See box.) Journalist Charles Krauthammer warns: “The end of the Soviet threat does not mean the end of nuclear danger. The real danger is proliferation, and proliferation has just begun.”

Bombs for Sale

Would-be nuclear powers are eager to gain the prestige and power these weapons offer. One country is said to have bought at least two nuclear warheads from Kazakhstan. This former Soviet republic officially lists the warheads as “missing.”

In October 1992 several men were arrested in Frankfurt, Germany, with seven ounces [200 gm] of highly radioactive cesium, enough to poison an entire city’s water supply. A week later, seven smugglers were caught in Munich with 4.9 pounds [2.2 kg] of uranium. The discovery of two nuclear smuggling rings within two weeks startled officials, since only five such cases had been reported worldwide for the entire previous year.

Whether these individuals were intent on selling to terrorist groups or to national governments is unknown. Nevertheless, the possibility of nuclear terrorism is growing. Dr. David Lowry of the European Proliferation Information Centre explains the danger: “All a terrorist needs to do is send a sample of highly enriched uranium to a reputable authority for testing, saying we have so much and here is the proof. It is like a kidnapper sending off the ear of a victim.”

[Box on page 4]

NUCLEAR POWERS

12 and Still Counting

DECLARED or DE FACTO: Belarus, Britain, China, France, India, Israel, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, United States

POTENTIAL: Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, South Korea, Syria, Taiwan