Two Shots That Changed the World

By 1914, long-standing rivalries among European powers had stretched nerves taut and produced two opposing alliances: the Triple Alliance of Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Germany and the Triple Entente of Britain, France, and Russia. Moreover, those nations had political and economic ties with a number of other countries, including those in the Balkans.

At the time, the area called the Balkans was a politically volatile region chafing under the sovereignty of the bigger powers, and it was rife with secret societies scheming for independence. There, a small group of young people plotted to assassinate Austrian Archduke Francis Ferdinand during his visit to Sarajevo, capital of Bosnia, on June 28.a A small police presence made their task easier. The would-be assassins, however, had minimal training. One youth threw a small bomb but missed his target, and others failed to act when the time came. Gavrilo Princip was the one conspirator who succeeded​—and only by sheer accident. How so?

When Princip saw the archduke drive by still unharmed by the bomb, he tried to get to the car but in vain. Dispirited, he walked across the road to a café. Meanwhile, the archduke, angry about the attempted bombing, decided to change his route. However, his driver, unaware of the change in plans, set off in the wrong direction and had to turn the car around. At that very moment, Princip came out of the café and was literally presented with a sitting target​—the archduke in his open car less than ten feet [3 m] away. Princip approached the car and fired two shots, killing the archduke and his wife.b A naive Serb nationalist, Princip likely had no idea of the avalanche he had just triggered. Yet, he could not take sole blame for the horrors to come.

The Avalanche Begins

Even though an official investigation found no evidence to incriminate the Serbian government in the assassination of the archduke, Austria was determined to end Slavic agitation in the empire once and for all. Austria was keen “to teach Serbia her lesson,” says historian J. M. Roberts.

In an attempt to defuse tensions, Nicholas Hartwig​—the Russian ambassador in the Serbian capital—​worked on a possible compromise. But he had a heart attack and died while meeting with the Austrian legation. Finally, on July 23, Austria sent Serbia a list of demands that amounted to an ultimatum. Because Serbia could not accept all the demands, Austria immediately terminated diplomatic relations. At that crucial moment, diplomacy broke down.

Still, a few attempts were made to prevent war. For example, the United Kingdom recommended an international conference, and Germany’s kaiser urged Russia’s czar not to mobilize. But events ran out of control. “Statesmen, generals, and whole nations were overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of the events that were about to unfold,” states the book The Enterprise of War.

The Austrian emperor, backed by assurances of German support, declared war on Serbia on July 28. Russia backed Serbia and thus tried to restrain Austria’s hand by announcing the mobilization of about a million Russian troops along the Austrian border. Because that would leave Russia’s border with Germany undefended, the Russian czar reluctantly ordered a total mobilization.

The czar tried to assure the kaiser that he had no designs on Germany. Nevertheless, the Russian mobilization threw German war plans into high gear, and on July 31, Germany commenced executing the Schlieffen battle plan, declaring war on Russia on August 1 and on France two days later. Because German war plans involved marching through Belgium, Britain warned Germany that it would declare war on that country if it violated Belgian neutrality. German troops crossed into Belgium on August 4. The die was cast.

[Picture on page 19]

Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand

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© Mary Evans Picture Library