Ne a Mea e Ma‵taku ki ei a Tino e Tokouke?
“E se ‵tau o fai koe e pelā me se tino lotu telā e mafaufau me ka fakamataku eiloa a te tulaga o te olaga o tino i aso mai mua.”—STEPHEN O’LEARY, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.a
E MATA, e ‵lago atu koe ki te fakamatalaga tenei mai luga? E fakamatala mai i te fakasologa o mataupu konei a nisi pogai e ma‵taku ei a tino ki mea ka ‵tupu i aso mai mua. Kae ka fakaasi mai foki i ei a te pogai e mafai ei koe o talitonu me ka seai se gataga o te olaga i te lalolagi tenei. E isi eiloa ne pogai ‵lei mō kilokiloga konei, faitalia a manatu fakafanoanoa kolā ka faitau koe ki ei.
Koi fanaka eiloa a te fakama‵taku o taua fakaniukelea. I te 2007, ne fakailoa mai a te Bulletin of the Scientists, penei: “Ne fatoa lavea atu ne te lalolagi se mea fakamataku i te taimi ne pōmu ei a te fa‵kai o Hiroshima mo Nagasaki.” Kaia e manava‵se ei? Ne lipoti mai te Bulletin me i te 2007, e nofo ki se 27,000 o meatau fakaniukelea koi fakaaoga kae e ‵tusa mo te 2,000 o meatau konā ko “toka ke fakaaoga i ne nāi minute.” Kafai foki loa e foliki fua a te pasene o meatau kolā ka faka‵pa, ka lasi ‵ki eiloa a te fakamaseiga e oko ki ei!
E mata, ko oti ne gasolo ifo a te fakamataku o mea fakaniukelea talu mai te taimi tenā? A fenua takutakua e lima i meatau fakaniukelea—ko Saina, Falani, Lusia, United Kingdom, mo Iunaite Sitete— ko “fakatoka katoa ne latou a meatau fakaniukelea ‵fou io me faka‵pula atu a te lotou manakoga ke fai penā,” ko fakamatalaga a te SIPRI Yearbook 2009.bc Kae e fakaasi mai i te yearbook tenei me e se ko fenua fua konei e faite ne latou a meatau fakaniukelea. Ko oti ne iloilo aka ne tino sukesuke me i Initia, Pakistan, mo Isalaelu e faite foki ne latou a pōmu fakaniukelea mai te 60 ki te 80 a te aofaki o latou. E fai mai foki latou, me ko ‵tusa mo te 8,392 o meatau fakaniukelea i te lalolagi kātoa ko oti ne fakatoka kae ko toka nei o faka‵pa.
A mafulifuliga o tau o aso e iku atu ki fakalavelave ‵tupu fakafuasei. “A fakamaseiga kolā ne māfua mai i mafulifuliga o tau o aso, e toeitiiti eiloa ko ‵pau a te fakamataku mo mea kolā ne māfua mai i meatau fakaniukelea,” ko pati i te Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. A saienitisi tāua, e pelā mo Stephen Hawking, se polofesa mua i te Iunivesiti o Cambridge, mo Sir Martin Rees, te pule o te Trinity College i te iunivesiti o Cambridge, ne faka‵sae aka ne lāua a faka‵pulaga konā. E mafau‵fau lāua me i te fakaaogaga ‵se o poto konei mo mafuli‵fuliga o te natula ona ko galuega a tino e mafai o ‵fuli ne ia a te olaga i te lalolagi io me fakagata foki i ei a te gasolo atu ki mua o te olaga o tino.
E manava‵se a te fia miliona o tino e uiga ki te fakalavelave fakamataku telā ka tupu i aso mai mua. Kafai e taipa ne koe a te fuaiupu e uiga ki “te gataga o te lalolagi” mo te tausaga ko te “2012” i se fakatuatusi tonu i te itaneti, ka lavea atu ei ne koe a te fia selau o tala e uiga ki te gataga e oko mai i te tausaga tenā. Kaia e fai ei penā? Me e isi se kalena mua i Maya e lauiloa e pelā me ko “the Long Count,” telā ne fakaasi mai i ei me i te gataga e oko mai i te tausaga ko te 2012. E tokouke a tino e ma‵taku me i te mea tenei e fakailoga ki ei a te gataga o te olaga masani tenei e pelā mo te mea ko iloa ne tatou.
E tokouke a tino ‵lotu e tali‵tonu me e akoako mai a te Tusi Tapu i te paneta tenei ka fakaseai atu. E tali‵tonu latou me i tino fakamaoni katoa ka ave ki te lagi, a ko te ‵toega o tino ka fakapuapuaga i se lalolagi telā e ‵numi valevale io me ‵pei atu ki kena.
Kae, e mata, e fai mai i te Tusi Tapu me ka fakaseai katoatoa atu a te lalolagi? Ne fakailoa mai a te apositolo ko Ioane, penei: “Sa tali‵tonu ki a latou kolā e fai mai me e nofo i a latou a te agaga, kae tofotofogina ke iloa tonu, me ko te agaga e ‵nofo mo latou e vau mai i te Atua.” (1 Ioane 4:1) I lo te talia fakavave o pati a nisi tino, kaia e se faitau ei koe ki te Tusi Tapu ke lavea ne koe a pati e uiga ki te gataga o te lalolagi? E mafai o ofo koe i mea kolā e akoako mai i ei.
[Fakamatalaga fakaopoopo]
a Mai te mataupu ko te “Disasters Fuel Doomsday Predictions,” telā ne lomi i te MSNBC Web site, i a Oketopa 19, 2005.
b A te SIPRI e fakauiga loa ki te Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
c A te lipoti i te SIPRI Yearbook i te 2009 ne tusi ne Shannon N. Kile, se tino sukesuke kae pule foki i te matagaluega o meatau fakaniukelea i te SIPRI Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme; A Vitaly Fedchenko, se tino sukesuke telā e ga‵lue fakatasi mo te SIPRI Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme; mo Hans M. Kristensen, te pule o te matagaluega o nuclear information i te Federation of American Scientists.
[Ata i te itulau e 4]
Mushroom cloud: U.S. National Archives photo; hurricane photos: WHO/League of Red Cross and U.S. National Archives photo