Ngaba Siphelile Isisongelo Senyukliya?
SEKUDLULE iminyaka engaphezu kwama-40 ihlabathi liphantsi kwesisongelo senyukliya. Kwandula ke, ngowe-1989, kwawa uDonga lwaseBerlin—nto leyo eyayigabulel’ izigcawu ukubhanga kobuKomanisi beSoviet. Akuzange kube kudala emva koko, amagunya amakhulu ehlabathi avumelana kwelokuba ayeke ukujukujelana ngeentolo-mlilo. Njengoko “iArmagedon” yenyukliya yayibonakala inqunyanyisiwe, okanye imiselwe elinye ixesha, ihlabathi latsho lathoba izibilini.
Noko ke, iingcali ezininzi zivakalelwa kukuba kusekutsha kakhulu ukuba sivuye. Ngowe-1998 iwotshi yemini yentshabalalo edumileyo yeThe Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists yabekwa phambili ngemizuzu emihlanu, ukuya kwesithoba ngaphambi kwentsimbi yeshumi elinesibini ebusuku—nto leyo eyenza kwacaca ukuba isisongelo senyukliya sasingekapheli.a Enyanisweni, ihlabathi litshintshile. Ayisengomagunya mabini aphambili anezixhobo zenyukliya ajongene ngezikhondo zamehlo. Ngoku aliqela amazwe anezixhobo zenyukliya! Ngaphezu koko, iingcali zoyikela ukuba ekuhambeni kwexesha iqela elithile labagrogrisi lisenokufumana izixhobo ezinemitha yeathom zize zenze ibhombu yeathom nokuba ayiphelelanga.
Ngaphezu koko, nangona ziye zanciphisa ngokuphawulekayo, iUnited States neRashiya zinamaziko awoyikekayo ahlala iintolo-mlilo zenyukliya. Ngokutsho kwelinye iqela labaphandi ekuthiwa yiCommittee on Nuclear Policy, izixhobo zenyukliya ezingama-5 000 zilinde nje ukuchukunyiswa zidubule. Ithi ingxelo yeli qela: “Ngoko ke, ukuba bekunokukhutshwa imiyalelo kuyile meko kuyiyo, iintolo-mlilo ezingama-4 000 [imijukujelwa athumelana ngayo amazwe] (ezingama-2 000 kwicala ngalinye) zingathunyelwa nje ngemizuzwana kuphinde kulandele ezinye iintolo-mlilo ezili-1 000 [imijukujelwa edutyulwa ngeenkwili] kungabanga thuba lide emva koko.”
Xa kukho iziko elinjalo, kungaqhambuka imfazwe ngengozi okanye ebicetywe kwangaphambili. Qhaji lithile elidumileyo eRashiya uVladimir Belous lakha lalumkisa ngelithi: “Kungenzeka ingozi embi, kangangokuba ihlabathi lizibone sele liphakathi kwimbubhiso yenyukliya, ngokwahlukileyo kwiimfuno zeenkokeli zobupolitika.” Ngoko nangona iMfazwe Yomlomo isenokuba iphelile, isisongelo sembubhiso yenyukliya sona asikapheli. Kodwa sikhulu kangakanani esi sisongelo? Ngaba izixhobo zenyukliya ziya kuze ziphele emhlabeni? Amanqaku alandelayo aza kukhe ahlale phezu kwaloo miba.
[Umbhalo osemazantsi]
a Iwotshi yemini yentshabalalo ekuqweqwe lweThe Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ifuzisela indlela ekuqikelelwa ukuba ihlabathi likufutshane ngayo “kwintshabalalo” yemfazwe yenyukliya. Ukutyhubela amashumi eminyaka, usiba lwale wotshi oluchaza imizuzu luye lwahanjiswa ngenjongo yokubonisa utshintsho kwimeko yehlabathi yezobupolitika.
[Inkcazelo Ngomfanekiso okwiphepha 3]
Explosions on pages 2 and 3: U.S. National Archives photo