Imfazwe Yenyukliya—Ngoobani Abasisisongelo?
“Yinto enokwenzeka ukutshatyalaliswa kwabantu ngenyukliya. Oko kunokwenzeka nanamhlanje, . . . phezu kwako nje ukuphela kweMfazwe Yomlomo kwiminyaka engaphezu kweshumi eyadlulayo.”—Owayesakuba nguNobhala Kumkhosi waseUnited States uRobert S. McNamara noJames G. Blight, unjingalwazi wonxibelelwano lwezizwe ngezizwe kwiWatson Institute for International Studies.
NGOWE-1991 xa kwaphela iMfazwe Yomlomo, usiba olude lwewotshi efuzisela isiphelo sehlabathi lwabuyiselwa umva ngemizuzu eli-17 ngaphambi kokuba kube “sezinzulwini zobusuku.” Iwotshi efuzisela isiphelo sehlabathi iboniswe kwiphepha elingaphandle lephephancwadi iBulletin of the Atomic Scientists yaye ifuzisela indlela elikufuphi ngayo ihlabathi koko kuthiwa yimfazwe yenyukliya (ezinzulwini zobusuku). Olu siba lwaluqala ukubuyiselwa umva ngolo hlobo kususela oko yenziwayo le wotshi ngowe-1947. Noko ke, ukususela emva koko olu siba belumana ukusiwa phambili kwakhona. Ngokomzekelo, ngoFebruwari 2002, lwabekwa kwimizuzu esixhenxe ngaphambi kweenzulu zobusuku, lusisiwa phambili isihlandlo sesithathu kususela ekupheleni kweMfazwe Yomlomo.
Kwakutheni ukuze abapapashi belo phephancwadi bavakalelwe kukuba bafanele balise phambili? Kutheni bevakalelwa ukuba imfazwe yenyukliya isesisisongelo nje? Yaye ngubani osisisongelo soxolo?
Imfihlelo “Ngokuncitshiswa” Kwezixhobo
“Zingaphezu kwama-31 000 izixhobo zenyukliya ezisagciniweyo,” itsho njalo iBulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Ihlabela mgama ithi: “Ama-95 ekhulwini ezi zixhobo aseUnited States naseRashiya, yaye zingaphezu kwe-16 000 ezihlala zilungele ukuhlasela.” Abanye basenokubona ukungqubana okuthile ngokuphathelele inani leentolo zenyukliya ezikhoyo. Ngaba la mazwe angoongalo-nkulu ayengasele ethe azinciphisile iintolo zawo zaba ngama-6 000 kulo ngalinye?
Nantso ke iimfihlelo ngoku “kuncitshiswa.” Ingxelo eyanikelwa yiCarnegie Endowment for International Peace ithi: “Inani leentolo ezingama-6 000 linani nje ekwavunyelwana ngalo kwiSTART [Strategic Arms Reduction Talks]. Omabini la mazwe aza kugcina amawaka ezixhobo ezinobugocigoci.” (Akekeliswe sithi.) Ngokutsho kweBulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “eUnited States, iintolo zenyukliya ezininzi ziyashenxiswa ziye kugcinwa koovimba (ziye kubekwa phakathi kwezinye ezimalunga nama-5 000 esele zilapho) kunokuba zitshatyalaliswe.”
Ngoko ke, ukongezelela kumawaka ezixhobo zenyukliya ezihlala zilungele ukusebenza nanini na—onokudubula ngazo kwelinye ilizwekazi ngoxa ukwelinye—kukho amawaka ezixhobo zenyukliya ezenzelwe ukuhlasela kufuphi. Ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo, omabini la mazwe angoongalo-nkulu asagcine koovimba bawo intaphane yezixhobo zenyukliya ezinokutshabalalisa kwanto ishukumayo emhlabeni! Ukugcina izixhobo ezininzi kangako ezinobungozi kubangela olunye uloyiko—ukuhlasela ngemijukujelwa yenyukliya ngempazamo.
Imfazwe Yenyukliya Inokuqaliswa Ngempazamo
Ngokutsho kukaRobert S. McNamara noJames G. Blight, abakhankanywe ngaphambilana, “ukuze ihlasele ngezixhobo zenyukliya imikhosi yaseUnited States ilindela ‘ukuhlatywa komkhosi.’” Kuthetha ukuthini oku? “Iintolo zethu zihlala zilungele ukuhlasela nanini na kusithiwa nazo iintolo zaseRashiya zisiza,” bahlabela mgama besithi: “Ngokwendlela ezisebenza ngayo ayinakuphela imizuzu eli-15 kususela ekuphumeni kwesilumkiso sokuqala sokuhlasela kweRashiya singakhange siphindise ngeyethu imijukujelwa.” Ngokutsho kwelinye igosa laseUnited States elalisebenza kwiziko lemijukujelwa yenyukliya, “phantse yonke imijukujelwa ekhoyo ihlala ilungele ukusebenza kwimizuzu nje emibini.”
Oku kuhlala kwezi zixhobo zilungele ukusebenza kuzisa ingozi yokusetyenziswa kwazo ngempazamo ngenxa yesilumkiso esingachananga. Inqaku leU.S.News & World Report lithi: “Izihlandlo eziliqela, kwakhutshwa ngempazamo imiyalelo yokusebenzisa ezi zixhobo ngoxa kwakuqeqeshwa abantu ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya eMerika.” NaseRashiya kuye kwakho izilumkiso ezingachananga ezifanayo. Xa isiphekepheke sabaphandi saseNorway sabangela ukukhala kwesilumkiso esingachananga ngowe-1995, umongameli waseRashiya waqalisa ukulungiselela ukukhupha imiyalelo yokuphindisa ngenyukliya.
Oku kuhlala kwazo zilungele ukusebenza kuzisa uxinezeleko olukhulu kwabo benza isigqibo. Ngethamsanqa, kwixa elidluleyo abaphathi bemikhosi baye baqonda ukuba ezo zilumkiso azichananga, ngoko ke, ukuza kuthi ga ngoku imfazwe yenyukliya iye yathintelwa. Ngokuphathelele isiganeko sowe-1979, omnye umphandi wathi: “Into eyathintela amaMerika [ukuba angasebenzisi imijukujelwa yawo] ziisatellite zethu zokuhlab’ umkhosi, ezabonisayo ukuba akukho mijukujelwa yeSoviet isemoyeni.” Noko ke, ekuhambeni kwexesha ezi satellite ziyonakala. Abaphandi nabahlalutyi baxhalatyiswa kukuba “inkoliso yezi satellite eRashiya iyekile ukusebenza okanye ayisekho ndaweni yayo emajukujukwini.” Njengokuba isekela mphathi-mikhosi elidla umhlala-phantsi laseUnited States latshoyo kwiminyaka eliqela eyadlulayo, “kunanini na ngaphambili, namhlanje maninzi amathuba okuqalisa ukuhlasela elinye ilizwe lingekakuhlaseli okanye uthumele imijukujelwa yakho ngenxa yokungaqondani, ngenxa yegunya elinikwe umntu ongafanelekanga okanye ngempazamo.”
Amazwe Asandul’ Ukuba Nezixhobo Zenyukliya
Nangona oovimba abakhulu bezixhobo zenyukliya bekumazwe amabini angoongalo-nkulu, akho namanye amazwe anezixhobo zenyukliya njengeBritani, iFransi, neTshayina. Kula amazwe aziwayo ukuba anezixhobo zenyukliya kuye kwangenelela i-Indiya nePakistan. Ngaphandle kwala kukho namanye aliqela, kuquka elakwaSirayeli, ekudla ngokuthiwa azama ukufumana izixhobo zenyukliya—okanye sele enazo.
Ungquzulwano lwezopolitiko olunokuchaphazela naliphi na kula mazwe anezixhobo zenyukliya, kuquka lawo asandul’ ukuba nazo, lunokubangela imfazwe yenyukliya. IBulletin of the Atomic Scientists ithi: “Ungquzulwano lweIndiya nePakistan . . . lolona lwaphantse lwabangela imfazwe yenyukliya kunalo naluphi na olunye phakathi kwamazwe amabini ukususela kwiNgxabano Yomjukujelwa waseCuba.” Bebona loo meko yoyikisayo ekuqaleni kowama-2002, abantu abaninzi baqala phantsi ukoyika imfazwe yenyukliya.
Ukongezelela koko, ukuveliswa kwezixhobo ezinokutshabalalisa abantu abaninzi kuye kwabangela olunye uloyiko lokusetyenziswa kwebhombu yenyukliya. Ixubusha ngengxelo yasekhusini yePentagon, iThe New York Times yachaza ukuba enye indlela iMerika enokusebenzisa ngayo inyukliya “kukutshabalalisa oovimba bezixhobo zemichiza beentshaba nezinye izixhobo zokutshabalalisa abantu abaninzi.”
Uhlaselo lwabanqolobi eUnited States ngoSeptemba 11, 2001, lwazisa olunye uloyiko lwenyukliya kwihlabathi. Abantu abaninzi bakholelwa ukuba iintlangano zabanqolobi zizama ukuzenzela izixhobo zenyukliya—mhlawumbi sele zinazo. Kungenzeka njani oko?
Abanqolobi Banokuzenzela “Iibhombu Zenyukliya”
Ngaba inokwakhiwa ibhombu yenyukliya ngezinto ezifumaneka ngondlela-mnyama? Ngokutsho kwephephancwadi iTime, impendulo nguewe. Eli phephancwadi lanikela ingxelo ngeqela elamiselwa ukuba lithintele abanqolobi ekusebenziseni inyukliya. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, eli qela sele “liqokelele intaphane” yoozenzele beebhombu abenziwe “ngobugcisa obufumaneka kwiivenkile zikawonkewonke nangemichiza ethengiswa ngondlela-mnyama.”
Ukuncitshiswa nokuchithwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kuye kwawandisa amathuba okubiwa kwazo. Iphephancwadi iTime lithi: “Ukususwa kwamawaka ezixhobo zenyukliya zaseRashiya kwiindawo ezinqabisekileyo ezinemijukujelwa, iziqhushumbisi neenkwili zisiwe kwiindawo ezingenakhuseleko luluqilima kuza kwenza abanqolobi bazifune kwezo ndawo.” Ukuba isixhobo senyukliya siyachithwa size sifunyanwe liqela elincinane labavukeli lisidibanise, oko kuya kuthetha ukuba nalo elo qela linezixhobo zenyukliya njengamanye amazwe!
Iphephancwadi iPeace lithi akuyomfuneko nokuba udibanise ibhombu ukuze ube nesixhobo senyukliya. Ekuphela kwento efunekayo kukufumana isixa esaneleyo seuranium okanye iplutonium. Eli phephancwadi lithi: “Abanqolobi abaneuranium esetyenziswa kwizixhobo zanamhlanje baya kukwazi ukuqhushumbisa ngokusuka nje baphose isiqingatha sayo kwesinye.” Kufuneka umlinganiselo ongakanani wale michiza? Ngokutsho kweli phephancwadi, “iikhilogram ezintathu zinokwanela.” Lo mlinganiselo uphantse ulingane nalowo wafunyanwa kumasela awabanjwa ngowe-1994 eCzech Republic!
Nezinto ezisala xa kuchithwa isixhobo senyukliya zinokusetyenziswa njengesixhobo senyukliya. IThe American Spectator ithi: “Eyona nto ixhalabisa iingcali bubungozi bezi zinto xa zinokusetyenziswa neziqhushumbisi eziqhelekileyo.” Ezi zixhobo, zikhupha imichiza enetyhefu kuthiwa ngoozenzele bebhombu zenyukliya. Ziyingozi kangakanani? Ezi bhombu zisebenzisa “iziqhushumbisi ezinamandla ukuze zisasaze imichiza enetyhefu ngenjongo yokuba amaxhoba azo abulawe yityhefu kunokuba abulawe lolo qhushumbo okanye ubushushu bazo,” itsho njalo i-IHT Asahi Shimbun. Ihlabela mgama ithi: “Zinokwenza abantu bagule ngendlela engcungcuthekisayo, baze bagqibele ngokufa.” Nangona abanye besithi ukusebenzisa izinto ezisala kwizixhobo zenyukliya akunakwenza monakalo kangako, kodwa ukufumaneka kwezinto zokwenza inyukliya ngondlela-mnyama kuyabaxhalabisa abaninzi. Ngokohlolisiso olwenziwe kutshanje ehlabathini lonke, abantu abangaphezu kwama-60 ekhulwini bavakalelwa ukuba kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo abanqolobi baya kukwazi ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya.
Ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo, sisekho isisongelo senyukliya ehlabathini. IGuardian Weekly yaseBritani kaJanuwari 16-22, 2003, yathi: “Kususela kumaxesha obumnyama emfazwe yomlomo, ande ngakumbi amathuba okuba iUnited States isebenzise izixhobo zenyukliya. . . . IUnited States ithe ngcembe iqulunqa izinto eziya kuyivumela isebenzise izixhobo zenyukliya.” Ngoko, kusengqiqweni ukuzibuza: Ngaba imfazwe yenyukliya inokuphetshwa? Ngaba likho ithemba lokuphila kwihlabathi elingenasisongelo semfazwe yenyukliya? Le mibuzo kuza kuxutyushwa ngayo kwinqaku elilandelayo.
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Esinye Isisongelo Senyukliya?
Ebhala kwiThe New York Times Magazine, umbhali wemihlathi uBill Keller (ngoku okwisigqeba sabahleli beThe New York Times) wachaza uluvo lwakhe esithi izizwe zifikelwe sesinye isisongelo senyukliya. Esokuqala saphela ngoJanuwari 1994, xa iUkraine yavumayo ukunikezela ngezixhobo zenyukliya eyazifumana kwiSoviet Union. Kutheni ethetha ngesinye isisongelo senyukliya nje?
UKeller ubhala athi: “Isisongelo sesibini senyukliya seza nokuzongoma kwezithonga zenyukliya zindila ngaphantsi kwentlango yaseRajasthani ngowe-1998, njengoko urhulumente wobunashinali wamaHindu owawusandul’ ukunyulwa eIndiya wawukhulula izithonga ezihlanu zovavanyo. Kwiiveki ezimbini emva koko kwalandela iPakistan.” Yintoni eyayisenza olu vavanyo lwahluke kolo lwamazwe angaphambili? “Kaloku ezi zala mazwe kwakusaziwa ukuba kuza kuhlaselwa phi ngazo.”
Xa kunjalo, ngaba ihlabathi linokuziva linqabisekile xa kongezeleleke amazwe amabini anezixhobo zenyukliya? UKeller uqhubeka athi: “Lizwe ngalinye elifumana izixhobo zenyukliya landisa amathuba okulwa imfazwe yenyukliya.”—umxholo othi “The Thinkable,” kwiThe New York Times Magazine, kaMeyi 4, 2003, iphepha 50.
Le meko yenziwa mandundu ngakumbi ziindaba zokuba kunokwenzeka ukuba iNorth Korea “ineplutonium eyanele ukwenza iibhombu zenyukliya ezintandathu. . . . Usuku ngalunye lwandisa amathuba okuphumelela kweNorth Korea ukuvelisa izixhobo zenyukliya, mhlawumbi okuvavanya esinye ukuqinisekisa impumelelo yayo.”—iThe New York Times, kaJulayi 18, 2003.
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Igosa likarhulumente libonisa ibhombu yenyukliya ekhangeleka ngathi “yisutikheyisi”
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AP Photo/Dennis Cook
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Iisatellite ezindala zokuhlab’ umkhosi ziyonakala
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NASA photo
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Earth: NASA photo