Yintoni IEl Niño?

Xa uMlambo iApurímac osoloko utshile kufutshane neLima, ePeru, wathi wakhukulisa phantse zonke izinto zikaCarmen, wakhalaza wathi: “Sibaninzi abehlelwe yile nto, sibaninzi gqitha. Asindim ndedwa.” Emantla, izandyondyo zemvula zakha zatshintsha icandelo elingumqwebedu leNtlango iSechura engaselunxwemeni laba lichibi elikwindawo yesibini ngobukhulu ePeru, lithabatha indawo engangezikwekhilomitha ezingama-5 000. Kwezinye iindawo ehlabathini, izikhukula ezingaphaya kwengqondo, izitshingitshane ezikhulu, neembalela ezingamandla ziye zakhokelela kwindlala, iindyikitya zokufa, ukutsha kwamahlathi nokonakala kwezityalo, imizi kwakunye nemeko-bume. Yayibangelwa yintoni yonke le nto? Abanye bathi yabangelwa yiEl Niño, eyaqhambuka kuLwandlekazi lwePasifiki olukweleenjiko okanye olukwi-ikhweyitha ngasekupheleni kowe-1997 yaza yaqhubeka kangangeenyanga ezisibhozo.

Kanye kanye yintoni iEl Niño? Yenzeka njani? Kutheni ichaphazela indawo enkulu kangaka? Ngaba inokuqikelelwa ngokuchanileyo xa iza kuphinda yenzeke, mhlawumbi kuncitshiswe umonakalo ewenzayo kubomi babantu nakwizinto zabo?

Iqala Ngokufudumeza Amanzi

Iphephancwadi iNewsweek lithi: “Enyanisweni iEl Niño, ngumsinga wamanzi ashushu ovela kunxweme lwasePeru kwisithuba seminyaka emibini okanye esixhenxe.” Ngaphezu kweminyaka elikhulu, oomatiloshe abagugutha unxweme lwasePeru baye bakuphawula oko kufudumala kwamanzi. Ekubeni le misinga ishushu ngokuqhelekileyo ibakho malunga nexesha leKrismesi, kwathiwa ziiEl Niño, igama lesiSpanish lemveku enguYesu.

Ukufudunyezwa kwamanzi kufutshane nonxweme lwasePeru kwenza imvula ibe ninzi kwelo lizwe. Ezi mvula zibangela iintlango zichume kwande nemfuyo. Xa zinkulu, ezi mvula ziphinde zize nezikhukula kuloo mmandla. Ngaphezu koko, ukuba shushu kwamanzi aphezulu olwandle kuthintela amanzi angaphantsi apholileyo nanezondlo ukuba angakwazi ukunyukela phezulu. Ekugqibeleni izilwanyana ezininzi zaselwandle kwanezinye iintaka ziyafuduka zikhangela ukutya. IEl Niño ichaphazela nezinye iindawo ezikude kunxweme lwasePeru.a

Ibangelwa Ngumoya Namanzi

Yintoni ebangela ukunyuka ngokungaqhelekanga kobushushu bolwandle ngaselunxwemeni lwasePeru? Ukuze uyiqonde le nto, cinga okokuqala ngomjikelo omkhulu, obizwa ngokuba nguMjikelo kaWalker, okummandla ophakathi kwempuma nentshona kwiPasifiki ekweleenjiko.b Njengoko ilanga lifudumeza umphezulu wamanzi entshona, kufutshane neIndonesia neOstreliya, kunyuka umoya oshushu nofumileyo, ubangele uxinzelelo lomoya kufutshane namanzi. Umoya onyukayo uyaphola uze uphulukane nokufuma kwawo, ubangela kubekho imvula kuloo mmandla. Lo moya womileyo uqhutyelwa ngasempuma yimimoya evela kummandla ongasentla. Njengoko usiya ngasempuma, lo moya uyaphola uze ube nzima uze uqale ukwehlela ePeru nase-Ecuador. Oku kubangela uxinzelelo olukhulu lomoya kufutshane naselwandle. Yaye xa ulwandle lungaphakamanga kangako, imisinga yomoya eya calanye, ibheka ngasentshona engaseIndonesia, ngaloo ndlela igqibezela lo mjikelo.

Le mimoya iya calanye ibuchaphazela njani ubushushu bePasifiki ekweleenjiko? INewsweek ithi: “Le mimoya idla ngokufana nempepho ekwichibi elincinane, ityhalela amanzi afudumeleyo kwiPasifiki esentshona ukuze ulwandle lube ngangeenyawo ezimbini [iisentimitha ezingama-60] ukuphakama, lube neqondo lobushushu elili-15 ngokukaFahrenheit [iqondo elisisi-8 ngokukaCelsius] kunokuba lunjalo ngoku, ngokomzekelo, e-Ecuador.” Kwimpuma yePasifiki, amanzi abandayo azaliswe zizondlo nangaphantsi ayenyuka, aze abangele ukuba izinto eziphilayo ngaphantsi kwamanzi ziphile. Ngenxa yoko, ebudeni beminyaka nje eqhelekileyo, okanye engenayo iEl Niño, ulwandle luyaphola empuma kunasentshona.

Luluphi utshintsho lwemozulo olubangela iEl Niño? INational Geographic ithi: “Ngenxa yezizathu ezingekaziwa zizazinzulu, kwiminyaka embalwa imimoya eya calanye iyadamba okanye iphele.” Njengoko le mimoya iphela, amanzi afudumeleyo asuka ngaseIndonesia abuyela ngasempuma, anyuse ubushushu bolwandle ePeru nakwezinye iindawo zasempuma. Le ntshukumo iphinda ibe nento eyenzayo kwinkqubo yemeko-bume. Enye incwadi eneembekiselo ithi: “Ukufudumala koLwandlekazi lwePasifiki olukwimpuma yeleenjiko kuyawudodobalisa uMjikelo kaWalker kuze kubangele izandyondyo zemvula ziye ngasempuma, ukusuka entshona ukuya embindini nakwimpuma yePasifiki ekweleenjiko.” Ngenxa yoko, imozulu yayo yonke iPasifiki ekwi-ikhweyitha iyachaphazeleka.

Njengelitye Elikhulu Elihamba Nomsinga

Kwakhona iEl Niño inokutshintsha imozulu nakwiindawo ezikude, ukususela kwimisinga yamanzi yePasifiki ekweleenjiko. Inokwenzeka njani loo nto? Isebenzisa umjikelo okwimeko-bume. Ukuchatshazelwa kweendawo ezininzi kukungahambi kakuhle komjikelo okwimeko-bume kunokufaniswa nendlela ilitye elikhulu eliphakathi komsinga elinokubangela ngayo ukuba kubekho amaza kulo msinga xa uwonke. Amafu axineneyo emvula angasentla kwamanzi olwandlekazi olushushu kweleenjiko angumda ofana nelitye elikhulu kwimeko-bume, elichaphazela imozulu kwiindawo ezikumawakawaka eekhilomitha.

Kwiindawo eziphakamileyo, iEl Niño iphembelela ize itshintshe imisinga yomoya evuthuza ngamandla isiya empuma ngesantya esingaphaya kwengqondo. Le misinga idudulela iziphango kwezi ndawo ziphakamileyo. Ukuphenjelelwa nokutshintshwa kwale misinga kunokuyenza mandundu imeko yemozulu. Ngokomzekelo, ubusika obune-El Niño budla ngokungabandi kwimimandla ekumantla eUnited States, ngoxa buba neemvula ezininzi yaye bubande ngakumbi kwamanye amazwe asemazantsi.

Inokuqikeleleka Kangakanani?

Imiphumo yesiphango inokuqikelelwa kwisithuba seentsuku eziliqela ngaphambi kokuba yenzeke. Ngaba kunjalo nangamalinge okuqikelela iEl Niño? Akunjalo. Kunokuba nje luchaze imozulu yexesha elifutshane, uqikelelo lwe-El Niño luquka iimeko ezingaqhelekanga zemozulu zemimandla emikhulu kangangeenyanga eziliqela ngaphambili. Yaye abaphengululi bemozulu baye baphumelela ngandlel’ ithile ekuqikeleleni iEl Niño.

Ngokomzekelo, uqikelelo lwe-El Niño yowe-1997-98 lwakhutshwa ngoMeyi we-1997—kwisithuba seenyanga ezintandathu ngaphambi kokuba iqhambuke. Kuyo yonke iPasifiki ekweleenjiko kukho izixhobo ezingama-70 ezilinganisa umoya kolu lwandlekazi nobushushu ukuya kutsho kubunzulu beemitha ezingama-500. Xa ifakwe kwiikhompyutha ezijongene nemozulu, le nkcazelo iba luqikelelo lwemozulu.

Imiqondiso yokuqala ye-El Niño eneneni inokunceda abantu balungiselele izinto ezinokwenzeka. Ngokomzekelo, ukususela ngowe-1983, uqikelelo lwe-El Niño ePeru luye lwabangela abalimi abaninzi ukuba bafuye iinkomo baze batyale izityalo ezilungele imvula, ngoxa abalobi baye bayeka ukuloba iintlanzi baza babambisa iinqonci ezifumaneka kumanzi afudumeleyo. Ewe, uqikelelo oluchanileyo kunye nokulungiselela kusengaphambili kunokunciphisa ukwenzakala kwabantu nokuwohloka kwemeko yezoqoqosho ngenxa ye-El Niño.

Uphando lwezenzululwazi oluye lwenziwa ngokuphathelele iinkqubo ezilawula imozulu yomhlaba lungqina ukuchana kwamazwi aphefumlelweyo awabhalwa nguKumkani uSolomon woSirayeli wamandulo kwiminyaka emalunga nama-3 000 eyadlulayo. Wathi: “Umoya uya emzantsi, uze ujikeleze uye emntla. Uyaqhubeka ujikeleza, uze umoya ubuyele ekujikelezeni kwawo.” (INtshumayeli 1:6) Umntu wanamhlanje uye wazi izinto ezingakumbi ngemozulu ngokufunda kwimisinga yomoya neyeelwandlekazi. Ngamana singangenelwa kolo lwazi ngokuthobela izilumkiso eziphathelele iziganeko ezinjenge-El Niño.

[Imibhalo esemazantsi]

[Ibhokisi ekwiphepha 19]

INDLELA ETSHABALALISA NGAYO IEL NIÑO

■ Ngowe-1525: Eyona ngxelo indala ingokwembali ye-El Niño ePeru.

■ Ngowe-1789-93: IEl Niño yabulala abantu abangaphezu kwama-600 000 eIndiya yaza yabangela indlala ebomvu kumazantsi eAfrika.

■ Ngowe-1982-83: Ngeli xesha yabulala abantu abangaphezu kwama-2 000 yaza yonakalisa izinto ezixabisa ii-R80 zamawaka ezigidi ingakumbi kwimimandla ekweleenjiko.

■ Ngowe-1990-95: Yenzeka izihlandlo ezithathu zilandelelana, nto leyo eyabangela eyona El Niño yathabatha ixesha elide ezimbalini.

■ Ngowe-1997-98: Phezu kwalo nje uqikelelo lwezikhukula neembalela ezibangelwa yiEl Niño olwaluqala ukuphumelela, kwafa abantu abamalunga nama-2 100 yaye konakala izinto ezixabisa ngaphezu kwee-R202 zamawaka ezigidi ehlabathini lonke.

[Imizobo/Iimaphu ezikwiphepha 16, 17]

(Ukuba ufuna inkcazelo ehlahlelwe kakuhle, yiya kwimpapasho)

NGOKUQHELEKILEYO

UMjikelo kaWalker

Imimoya enamandla

Amanzi afudumeleyo olwandlekazi

Amanzi abandayo olwandlekazi

IEL NIÑO

Ukutshintsha kwemisinga yomoya

Imisinga yomoya engabhudli ngamandla

Amanzi afudumeleyo aya ngasempuma

Ufudumele okanye womile kunoqhelekileyo

Uyabanda okanye unemvula kunoqhelekileyo

[Imizobo/Imifanekiso ekwiphepha 18]

(Ukuba ufuna inkcazelo ehlahlelwe kakuhle, yiya kwimpapasho)

IEL NIÑO

Imibala ebomvu ekule ngqukuva imela ukuba shushu kwamanzi ngaphezu kwendlela eqhelekileyo

NGOKUQHELEKILEYO

Amanzi ashushu ayafumba kwiPasifiki esentshona, evumela amanzi anezondlo nabandayo ukuba enyukele ngasempuma

EL NIÑO

Imimoya engabhudli ngamandla yeivumela amanzi afudumeleyo ukuba abuyele empuma, ngaloo ndlela ivalela amanzi apholileyo

[Imifanekiso ekwiphepha 16, 17]

EPERU

INtlango iSechura ekhukulisiweyo

EMEXICO

Inkanyamba uLinda

EKHALIFONIYA

Iimpuphuma zodaka

[Inkcazelo]

Pages 16-7 left to right: Fotografía por Beatrice Velarde; Image produced by Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; FEMA photo by Dave Gatley