Kwenzeka Ntoni Kwimozulu?
“Izikhukula ezibangela iintlekele nezaqhwithi ezingathethekiyo esizibonayo ngoku, ziseza kuquqa zibuyelela.”—uTHOMAS LOSTER, INGCALI KWIINTLEKELE EZIBANGELWA YIMOZULU.
NGABA kukho into eyonakeleyo kwimozulu? Abantu abaninzi bacinga njalo. Isazi ngemozulu uGqr. Peter Werner wePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research uthi: “Xa sikhangela imozulu yomhlaba wonke—indlela ezenzeka ngayo izikhukula, imbalela, izaqhwithi—naxa sibona izinto ezenzayo, sinokutsho ngokuchanileyo ukuba umkhamo ezenzeka ngawo ezi zinto uye waphindeka kane kule minyaka ingama-50 idluleyo.”
Abantu abaninzi bavakalelwa kukuba le mozulu ingaqhelekanga bubungqina bokuba shushu ngokugqithiseleyo komhlaba. IU.S. Environmental Protection Agency ithi: “Ubushushu boMhlaba buya busanda ngenxa yeegesi ezithile ezisemoyeni (ngokomzekelo, umphunga, ikharbon diokside, initrous oxide nemethane) ezigcina ubushushu obuvela elangeni. Ukuba ezi gesi bezingekho, bekuya kuba lula ukuba ubushushu bubuyele ngaphaya kommandla woMhlaba, yaye bekuya kubanda ngomlinganiselo omalunga nama-33° ngokukaCelsius.”
Noko ke, abantu abaninzi bathi, ngenxa yokungazi umntu uye waphazamisana nendlela esebenza ngayo indalo. Inqaku le-Earth Observatory, impapasho ye-U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration efumaneka kwikhompyutha lithi: “Kangangamashumi eminyaka imizi-mveliso yabantu neemoto iye yakhuphela emoyeni amawaka ezigidi zeetoni zegesi . . . Izazinzulu ezininzi zoyikela ukuba ukwanda kweegesi ezisemoyeni kuye kwathintela ubushushu abakwazi ukuphumela ngaphaya kommandla woMhlaba. Enyanisweni, ezi gesi zigcina ubushushu obugqithiseleyo bungakwazi ukushiya ummandla woMhlaba ngendlela efanayo nefestile yangaphambili yemoto xa igcine ubushushu belanga ngaphakathi emotweni.”
Abantu abakuthandabuzayo oku bathi mncinane gqitha umlinganiselo weegesi ezikhutshelwa ngabantu emoyeni. Noko ke, i-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iqela lophando oluxhaswa yi-World Meteorological Organization neUnited Nations Environment Programme, ithi: “Kukho ubungqina obutsha nobunesihlahla bokuba obona bushushu bomhlaba kule minyaka ingama-50 idluleyo, ubukhulu becala bubangelwe ngabantu.”
Isazi ngemozulu uPieter Tans weNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uthi: “Ukuba bekunokufuneka ndenze umlinganiselo kuloo mbandela, bendiya kuthi ubushushu obungama-60 ekhulwini bubangelwe sithi . . . Lowo ke useleyo ungama-40 ekhulwini ubangelwa ziziganeko zemvelo.”
Izinto Ezinokubangelwa Kukuba Shushu Komhlaba
Ngoko ke, yintoni ebonakalayo ebangelwe kukuba ninzi kweegesi ezikhutshelwa emoyeni ngabantu? Inkoliso yezazinzulu ngoku iyavumelana ukuba umhlaba uya usiba shushu ngakumbi. Buye banda kangakanani obu bushushu? Ingxelo yowama-2001 yeIPCC ithi: “Ukuba shushu komhlaba kuye kwanda nge-0.4 ne-0.8°ngokukaCelisius ukususela ekupheleni kwenkulungwane ye-19.” Abaphandi abaninzi bakholelwa ukuba nakuba kukuncinane oko kwanda kunokubangela iinguqu eziqatha kwimozulu.
Kuyavunywa ukuba, imozulu yomhlaba intsonkothe ngokumangalisayo, yaye izazinzulu azinakutsho ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba ziintoni ezibangelwa kukuba shushu komhlaba. Noko ke, ezininzi zikholelwa ukuba ngenxa yokuba shushu komhlaba, kuye kwakho iimvula ezingakumbi kuMntla Ikhweyitha, imbalela eAsia naseAfrika nokugqugqisa kwe-El Niño kwiPasifiki.
Kufuneka Isicombululo Emhlabeni Wonke
Ekubeni abantu abaninzi bebona le ngxaki njengebangelwa ngumntu, ngaba umntu akanakukwazi ukuyicombulula? Ziliqela iindawo esele zimisele imithetho ephathelele imiqathango yeegesi ezingcolisayo ezikhutshelwa emoyeni ziimoto nemizi-mveliso. Noko ke, loo migudu—nangona incomeka—iye ayabi loncedo kangako. Ungcoliso yingxaki esemhlabeni wonke, ngoko isicombululo sifanele sivele emhlabeni wonke! Ngowe-1992 kwaqhutywa i-Earth Summit eRio de Janeiro. Kwiminyaka elishumi kamva, eJohannesburg, eMzantsi Afrika kwaqhutywa i-World Summit on Sustainable Development. Zimalunga nama-40 000 iindwendwe ezazikule ntlanganiso yowama-2002, kuquka iinkokeli zamazwe ezimalunga ne-100.
Ezi nkomfa ziye zanegalelo elikhulu ekubangeleni kubekho ukuvumelana okuthile phakathi kwezazinzulu. Iphephandaba laseJamani iDer Tagesspiegel lithi: “Nangona emva phaya [ngowe-1992] inkoliso yezazinzulu yayiwuthandabuza umonakalo obangelwa ziigesi ezisemoyeni, zimbalwa gqitha ezikuthandabuzayo oku namhlanje.” Sekunjalo, umphathiswa wezemvelo waseJamani, uJürgen Trittin, usikhumbuza ukuba esona sicombululo sale ngxaki asikafunyanwa. Wagxininisa wathi: “Oku kuthethwe kule ngqungquthela yaseJohannesburg makungapheleli emazwini nje kuphela, kodwa kufanele kwenziwe.”
Ngaba Kunokupheliswa Ukonakaliswa Kwemekobume?
Ukuba shushu komhlaba yenye yeengxaki ezininzi zemekobume olujamelene nazo uluntu. Kusenokuba lula ukuthetha ngesicombululo kunokuba siphunyezwe. Isazi ngentlalo yabantu saseBritani, uJane Goodall ubhala athi: “Ekubeni sele siwuqonda ngoku umonakalo esiwenzayo kwimekobume, senza konke okusemandleni ethu ukufumana obona bugcisa bunokuza nesicombululo.” Kodwa ulumkisa athi: “Ubugcisa nje bubodwa abunakunceda nto. Sifanele sizinikele ngokupheleleyo.”
Kwakhona cinga ngengxaki yokuba shushu komhlaba. Ukulwa nokungcoliswa kwemekobume kuziindleko gqitha; amazwe ahlwempuzekileyo asoloko engakwazi ukuzifikelela. Ngoko ke, ezinye iingcali zoyika ukuba ukubeka imiqathango ekusetyenzisweni kwamandla kuya kwenza imizi-mveliso ibalekele kumazwe ahlwempuzekileyo apho inokwenza ingeniso eninzi khona. Ngoko ke, kwanezona nkokeli zineenjongo ezintle zisengxakini. Xa zikhusela uqoqosho lwamazwe azo, imekobume iyonakaliswa. Ukuba zizabalazela ukukhuselwa kwemekobume, zibeka esichengeni imeko yezoqoqosho.
USevern Cullis-Suzuki, ongumcebisi kwiWorld Summit, wabonisa ukuba utshintsho lufanele lubonakale kwizenzo zomntu, esithi: “Utshintsho lokwenene kwimekobume luxhomekeke kuthi. Asinakulindela kwiinkokeli zethu. Sifanele sinikele ingqalelo koko simele sikwenze nendlela esikwenza ngayo oko ukuze kubekho utshintsho.”
Yinto elindelekileyo ukuba abantu bayihlonele imekobume. Kodwa akuyondlwan’ iyanetha ukutshintsha indlela abaphila ngayo abantu baze benze iinguqu ezifunekayo. Ngokomzekelo: Abantu abaninzi bayavuma ukuba iimoto zinegalelo kule ngxaki yokuba shushu komhlaba. Ngoko ke, omnye umntu usenokufuna ukuyisebenzisa kancinane imoto okanye ayiyeke ngokupheleleyo. Kodwa kusenokungabi lula ukwenjenjalo. Kunjengokuba kanye uWolfgang Sachs weWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy ebonisa ukuba, “zonke iindawo ezibalulekileyo kubomi bemihla ngemihla (umsebenzi, isikolo okanye iivenkile) ziqelelene kangangokuba akunakukwazi ukuya kuzo ngaphandle kwemoto. . . . Ngoko ke, izicacele into yokuba iyafuneka imoto. Abantu abaninzi abanandlela yimbi.”
Ezinye izazinzulu, njengoNjingalwazi Robert Dickinson weGeorgia Institute of Technology’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, zoyikela ukuba abantu bashiywe lixesha bangabi sakwazi ukusindisa umhlaba kwiingxaki zokuba shushu kwawo. UDickinson ukholelwa ukuba enoba ukungcoliswa komoya bekunokuphela namhlanje, imiphumo yexesha elidluleyo yokonakaliswa komoya ibiya kuhlala ikho ubuncinane eminye iminyaka eli-100!
Ekubeni bengekho oorhulumente nabantu abanokukwazi ukucombulula iingxaki zemekobume, ngubani onokukwazi? Ukususela mandulo, abantu babekhangela ezulwini xa benqwenela imozulu efanelekileyo. Nakuba kusenokuba ngathi kuyimfeketho oko, kutyhila inyaniso esisiseko yokuba: Abantu bafuna uncedo lukaThixo ukuze bacombulule ezi ngxaki.
[Amagama acatshulweyo akwiphepha 7]
“Kukho ubungqina obutsha nobunesihlahla bokuba ubukhulu becala ukuba shushu komhlaba okuye kwenzeka kule minyaka ingama-50 kubangelwe ngabantu”
[Ibhokisi ekwiphepha 6]
“Ngaba Ukuba Shushu Komhlaba Kuyingozi Empilweni?”
Lo mbuzo ubangel’ umdla wabuzwa kwinqaku leScientific American. Kulo kwaqikelela ukuba, ukuba shushu komhlaba “kuseza kubangela iingxaki ezingakumbi zempilo.” Ngokomzekelo, kwezinye iindawo “kuqikelelwa ukuba inani labantu abafa ngenxa yobushushu liza kwanda ngokuphindwe kabini ngowama-2020.”
Into engaqondwayo ligalelo lokuba shushu komhlaba kwizifo ezasulelayo. “Kucingelwa ukuba isifo seengcongconi siza kuxhaphaka gqitha,” ekubeni iingcongconi “zisanda ngokukhawuleza yaye ziluma ngakumbi xa umoya ushushu. . . . Ngoko ke, njengokuba kusiba shushu kuzo zonk’ indawo, iingcongconi zinokwanda kwimimandla ezazikade zingakwazi ukuphila kuyo, zize zisasaze izifo.”
Ukuqukumbela, kukho umonakalo wezikhukula nembalela—zinto ezo ezinokubangela ukungcola kwemithombo yamanzi. Kucacile ukuba isisongelo sokuba shushu komhlaba asifanele sithatyathwe lula.
[Umfanekiso okwiphepha 7]
Ukubakho kweegesi ezigqithiseleyo emoyeni kubangela ukuba ubushushu buhlale kummandla womhlaba kunokuba buphumele ngaphandle kwawo
[Inkcazelo]
NASA photo
[Imifanekiso ekwiphepha 7]
Umntu uye wakhuphela emoyeni amawaka ezigidi zeetoni zezinto ezingcolisa umoya, esandisa ngokugqithisele ngakumbi iigesi ezisemoyeni