Ngaba Isijikelezi-langa Esingunmhlaba Siza Kutshabalala?
SELE siza kuyisonga inkulungwane yama-20, ibe ngoku sele zivakala izingqi zenkulungwane yama-21. Xa kunjalo key abantu abaninzi ababeqhele ukuzikhathaza okanye bangazikhathazi kwaukuzikhathaza ngeziprofeto ezixela umsindo ozayo xa kungoku badidekile abazi nokuba ukucinywa kweli hlabathi kusemnyango kangakanani na.
Usenokuba uye wawaphawula amanqaku amaphephandaba namaphephancwadi athetha ngalo mbandela—kwaneencwadi ezixubusha ngalo mbandela. Ukuze sizaziw iinguqulelo eziya kubakho ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane yama-21, kuya kufuneka silinde ukuze sibone. Abanye abantu bathi ukuphela konyaka wama-2000 kukuphela nje konyaka kulandele omnye (okanye kuyinto nje yomzuzu omnye, ukususela kowe-2000 ukusa kowama-2001) yaye kusenokungabikho miphumo ingako. Eyona nto ibaxhalabisa gqitha abantu abaninzi koko kuza kwenzeka kwixesha elizayo kwisijikelezi-langa sethu.
Namhlanje esinye isiprofeto esingundaba-mlonyeni sesokuba ngaminazan’ ithile—enoba kukwixesha elikufuphi okanye kwelikude— isijikelezi-langa esinguMhlaba siza kutshatyalaliswa ngokupheleleyo. Khawuqwalasele nje olu qikelelo Iwalatha kwikamva elimfiliba.
Kwincwadi yakhe ethi The End of the World—The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction, eyaqala ukupapashwa ngowe-1996 umbhali nokwasisithandi sobulumko uJohn Leslie uchaza izinto ezintathu ezinokubulala abantu emhlabeni. Okokuqala uyabuza: “Ngaba imfazwe yenyukliya ingathetha ukuphela kwazo zonke iintlanga zabantu?“ Emva koko wongezelela esithi: “Eyona nto ilindelekileyo . kukutshatyalaliswa ziingozi zemitha yelanga: umhlaza, ukuba buthathaka kwenkqubo yomzimba yokuzikhusela nto leyo eyenza izifo ezosulelayo zenze unothanda, okanye kwande nabantwana abataIwa beneziphene. Kusenokufa izidalwa eziliqela ezibalulekileyo ekuphileni kwimeko-bume.“ Into yesithathu esenokwenzeka ayikhankanyayo uMnu. Leslie yeyokuba umhlaba usenokuhlaselwa yintshakatsholo (comet) okanye sisijikelezi-langa esincinane: “Zona iintshakatsholo nezijikelezi-langa ezincinane ezibonakala ngathi ngenye imini ziya kuntlitha uMhlaba, zimalungn namnwaka amabini yaye zinobude obumalunga negiqingatha semayile ezintandathu [ikhilomithn okanye iikhilomitha ezilishumil. Kusekho neqnqobnna lezinkulu (esingahola gqithn xa sinokuziqikelela) nenkumbula yezo zincinane.“
Inkcazelo Ehlasimlisayo “Yentshabalalo“
Okanye cinga ngesinye isazinzulu, uPaul Davies, unjingalwazi kwiYunivesithi yaseAdelaide, eOstreliya. Wachazwa yiWashington Times ’njengoyena mbhali wenzululwazi usemagqabini macala onke eAtlantiki.“ Ngowe-1994 wabhala incwadi ethi The Last Three Minutes, eye yabizwa ngokuba “sisiseko sazo zonke iincwadi ezingemini yentshabalalo.“ Isahluko sokuqala sale ncwadi sibizwa ngokuba “Ngumhla Wentshabalalo,“ yaye sichaza ngentlungu enokubakho xa intshakatsholo inokuwela kwisijikelezi-langa esinguMhlaba. Funda inxalenye yenkcazelo yakhe enkwantyisayo:
“Isijikelezi-langa sishukunyiswa ngamandla anokuba ziinyikima ezingamawaka alishumi. Isivondoviya somoya otshayela kwanto ephezu komhlaba ushiye izakhiwo zithe waca, uze usiphule kwanto nje ekhoyo. Ummandla ongqonge loomwonyo usuka ukhule ube ngurhec’ izulu wentaba enyibilikayo, nto leyo eshiya uMhlaba unomwonyo oziimayile ezilikhulu [iikhilomitha ezili-150] ububanzi. . . . Kuphuma uthuli olunyukela esibhakabhakeni lusitha ilanga lingafiki kwisijikelezi-langa. Kuba luzizi, ukuloziza kwewaka lesigidi se-meteors ezimenyezelayo, neziqaqambileyo, zigqatsa umhlaba ngobushushu Obungathi kuyatsha, njengoko izinto ebezinyukele phezulu kwindawo ethile zisiwa emoyeni.”
UNjingalwazi Davies uhlabela mgama enxulumanisa 10 mfanekiso-ngqondweni noqikelelo lokuba intshakatsholo uSwift-Tuttle, yayiya kuntlitha umhlaba. Wongezelela isilumkiso sokuba isiganeko esinjalo asinakubakho kwikamva elikufuphi, kuluvo Iwakhe “kungekudala uSwiftTuttle, okanye into efana naye, iya kuntlitha uMhlaba.“ Isigqibo sakhe sisekelwe kuqikele10 lokuba kukho izinto ezili-10 000 nezimalunga ne-0,5 sekhilomitha okanye ngaphezulu ububanzi zihamba apho uMhlaba ujikeleza khona.
Ngaba uyakholelwa ukuba imeko enjalo ukoyikisa inokwenzeka? Inani elothusayo labantu liyakukholelwa oko. Kodwa bayalikhupha engqondweni naliphi ixhala abanalo ngokuziqinisekisa ukuba akunakwenzeka oko besaphila. Noko ke, kutheni isijikelezi-langa esinguMhlaba simele sitshatyalaliswe—enoba kungoku okanye kumawaka eminyaka azayo? Ngokuqinisekileyo, asingomhlaba ngokoqobo ongumthombo wengxaki kwabo bahlala kuwo, emntwini okanye kwisilwanyana. Kunoko, ngaba asingumntu ongunobangela wenkoliso yeengxaki zale nkulungwane yama-20, kuquka ’nokonakalisa urnhlaba’ ngokupheleleyo?—ISityhile10 11:18.
Ukuguquka Kwemeko Yokuphathwa Kakubi Komhlaba Ngumntu
Kuthekani ngento enokwenzeka yokuba umntu unokuwonakalisa ngokupheleleyo umhlaba ngokungawuphathi kakuhle nangokunyoluka? Alithandabuzeki elokuba sele kutshatyalaliswe iindawo eziliqela emhlabeni ngenxa yokutshatyalaliswa kwamahlathi, ukungcoliswa komoya ngokungalawulekiyo, nokonakaliswa kwemijelo yamanzi. Oku kwagxininiswa ngakumbi kwiminyaka enokuba ngama-25 eyadlulayo ngababhali beencwadi uBarbara Ward noRené Dubos kwincwadi yabo ethi Only One Earth: “linka1o ezinkulu ezintathu ezibangela ukungcoliswa komhlaba esimele sizihlolisise—ngumoya, amanzi nomhlaba—kakade ke, izinto ezintathu eziphambili ekuxhaseni ubomi emhlabeni wonke.“ Ibe ngokusisiseko imeko ayikhange itshintshe ibe bhetele ukususela ngoko, akunjalo na?
Xa sicinga ngokonakalisa umhlaba komntu okanye ngokuwutshabalalisa ngokungekho ngqiqweni, sinokukhuthazeka ngokufunda ngendlela isijikelezi-langa esinguMhlaba esinokubuyiselwa ngayo kwimeko yaso yangaphambili size sihlaziywe. Echaza la mandla okuzihlaziya amangalisayo, uRené Dubos uthetha la mazwi akhuthazayo kwenye incwadi, ethi, The Resilience of Ecosystems:
“Abantu abaninzi boyika ukuba ukwazi kwabo ngokuwohloka kwemeko-bume kufike sekukudala kuba umonakalo omkhulu osele wenziwe kwizinto eziphilayo awunakuguqulwa. Ngendlela endibona ngayo, asinasizathu sokungabi nethemba ngenxa yokuba izinto eziphilayo zinamandla amakhulu okuphucula iimeko ezibuhlungu ezijamelene nazo.
“Izinto eziphilayo zineendlela eziliqela zokuzinyanga.... Ezi ndlela zinceda iinkqubo zemekobume zikwazi ukoyisa Oko kubangelwe ziziphazamisi ngokusuka nje ziphinde zimisele imeko yesiqhelo yezinto zomhlaba.”
Oku Kunokwenziwa
Umzekelo obalaseleyo woku kule minyaka yakutshanje kukucocwa komlambo odumileyo waseLondon iThames. Incwadi ethi The Thames Transformed, ebhalwe nguJeffery Harrison noPeter Grant, ithetha ngale mpumelelo imangalisayo ebonisa into enokwenziwa xa abantu besebenza kunye ukuze kungenelwe uluntu ngokubanzi. ITshawe laseEdinburgh eBritani labhala kwintshayelelo yalo lathi: “Ekugqibeleni nali ibali elinempumelelo ngokomlinganiselo omkhuIu elifanele ukupapashwa phezu kwayo nje into yokuba lisenokukhuthaza abantu abathile bacinge ukuba iingxaki zokulondolozwa kwendalo azikho mbi ngendlela ebekukholelwa ukuba zimbi ngayo. . . . Bonke banokomelezwa koko kuye kwaphunyezwa eThames. Indaba ezimnandi zezokuba zinokulungiswa yaye amacebo abo anokuphumelela.”
Kwisahluko esithi “Ukucocwa Okukhulu,” uHarrison noGrant babhala bechwayitile ngoko kuphunyeziweyo ngaphezu kwale minyaka ingama-50 idluleyo besithi: “Okwesihlandlo sokuqala emhlabeni, umlambo obungcole gqitha nobusetyenziswa ngamashishini uye wacocwa kangangokuba iqela leentaka ezihlala emanzini neentlanzi ziye zabuyela. Ekubeni kuye kwenziwa inguqulelo enjalo ngokukhawuleza, kwimeko apho ekuqaleni ibikhangeleka inganik’ ithemba, iyakhuthaza kwabo banethemba ngobomi bezilwanyana.”
Bachaza olo tshintsho besithi: “Imeko yalo mlambo yawohloka ngokuthe ngcembe ekuhambeni kweminyaka de ekugqibeleni wagqejwa iduma lokugqibela ngeMfazwe Yehlabathi Yesibini Xa amaziko amakhulu okugutyula neendawo ekucocelwa kuzo zonakaliswa zaza zatshatyalaliswa. Ebudeni bowe-1940 nowe-1950 imeko yeThames yayingaginyisi mathe kwaphela. Umlambo wawufana neziko lokugutyula elivulekileyo; amanzi ayemnyama, engenayo ioksijini, yaye ebudeni beenyanga zasehlotyeni kwakuye kubekho ivumba elinuka into ebolileyo eliVela eThames elaligubungela ummandla omkhulu. Kwindawo eyayikade inyakazela iintlanzi kwakungekho nenye, ngaphandle kweempalanga ezimbalwa ezazikwazi ukuphila ngenxa yokuba zazikwazi ukuphefumla emoyeni ngaphezu kwamanzi. lintaka ezihlala ngaphakathi, kwiindawo ezirhangqwe zizakhiwo, phakathi kweLondon neWoolwich zancipha de zaba linani nje elincinane lamadada asendle angoontamonde yaye kuthiwa ayephila nje ngeemvuthuluka zeenkozo ezazisiwa kwisikhululo senqanawa kunokufumana isixa sokutya. . . . Ke ngoko ngubani owayenokukholelwa ukuba kwakukho inguqulelo eyayiya kwenzeka? Kungaphelanga neminyaka elishumi iindawo ezithile zomlambo ezaziguqulwe zisuka kwimeko yokwenene yokungabi nanto zaba ligwiba kwiindidi ezininzi zeentaka zamanzi, kuquka inyambalala yeentaka ii-wildfowl ezili-10 000 nee-waders ezili-12 000.”
Kakade ke, Oko kuchaza inguqulelo enye kummandla omncinane wehlabathi. Phofu ke, sinokufunda okuthile kulo mzekelo. Ubonisa ukuba isijikelezi-langa esinguMhlaba asimele sigqalwe njengesifileyo ngenxa yokuphathwa kwaso kakubi, ukunyoluka nokungaqiqi kwabantu. Imfundo yokwenene nomzamo omanyeneyo wokulungelwa koluntu unokunceda umhlaba ukwazi ukulungisa umonakalo omkhulu owenziwe kwindalo, kwimeko-bume nasemhlabeni ngokwawo. Kodwa kuthekani ngezinto ezisenokutshabalalisa ezinjengeentshakatsholo okanye izijikelezi-la nga ezincinane?
Inqaku elilandelayo linikela indlela yokufumna impendulo eyanelisayo kulo mbuzo udidayo.
[Amagama acatshulweyo akwiphepha 5]
Imfundo nomzamo omanyeneyo unokuwunceda umhlaba ulungise umonakalo omkhulu kuwo