Kwenzekani Ngesimo Sezulu?
“Izikhukhula ezibangele izinhlekelele neziphepho ezimbi esibhekene nazo zizogadla ziphindelela.”—UTHOMAS LOSTER, UMHLAZIYI WOMONAKALO ODALWA YISIMO SEZULU.
INGABE ngempela kukhona okonakele ngesimo sethu sezulu? Abaningi banovalo lokuthi kukhona. Umhlahli wesimo sezulu uDkt. Peter Werner ePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research uthi: “Lapho siqaphela isimo sezulu embulungeni yonke—imvula, izikhukhula, isomiso, iziphepho konke okwenzeka ngezinga elidlulele—siqaphela nendlela esakheka ngayo, singasho kufanele ukuthi lezi zimo ezingandile ziye zaphindaphindeka kane kule minyaka engu-50 edlule.”
Abaningi banomuzwa wokuthi isimo sezulu esingavamile siwubufakazi bokushisa komkhathi—isivuvu esingalawuleki esibangelwa amagesi athile. I-Environmental Protection Agency e-United States iyachaza: “Isivuvu siwukwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa esiba khona eMhlabeni ngoba amagesi athile emkhathini (ngokwesibonelo, umhwamuko, isikhutha, i-nitrous oxide ne-methane) ebamba ukushisa okuvela elangeni. Ngaphandle kwala magesi, ukushisa bekuyophuma emhlabeni kubuyele emkhathini futhi isilinganiso sezinga lokushisa emhlabeni besiyoba ngu-33°C ngaphansi kwezingaqhwa.”
Nokho, abaningi bathi umuntu ngokungazi uyiphazamisile le nqubo yemvelo. Isihloko esithile kwethi Earth Observatory, iphephabhuku elitholakala kuyi-Internet elikhishwa yi-National Aeronautics and Space Administration yase-United States, sithi: “Sekungamashumi eminyaka izimboni zabantu nezimoto zikhiphela emkhathini izinkulungwane zezigidi zamathani amagesi abamba ukushisa . . . Ososayensi abaningi banovalo lokuthi ukwanda kwamagesi abamba ukushisa kuye kwavimbela ukushisa okwengeziwe ukuba kuphume eMhlabeni. Empeleni, la magesi abamba ukushisa okudlulele emkhathini woMhlaba ngendlela nefasitela lemoto elibamba ngayo ukushisa kwelanga okungena emotweni.”
Abangakukholelwa lokhu bathi amagesi abamba ukushisa abangelwa umuntu ayisilinganiso esincane kakhulu. Nokho i-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iqembu labacwaningi elixhaswe yi-World Meteorological Organization ne-United Nations Environment Programme, iyabika: “Kunobufakazi obusha nobunamandla ngokwengeziwe bokuthi ukushisa okukhulu okuye kwaphawuleka kule minyaka engu-50 edlule kubangelwé izenzo zabantu.”
Isazi sezokwakheka kwesimo sezulu uPieter Tans we-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sithi: “Uma kudingeka ngilinganise, ngingathi amaphesenti angu-60 [okushisa] abangelwa yithina bantu . . . Amaphesenti angu-40 asele abangelwa yizizathu ezingokwemvelo.”
Imiphumela Engase Ibangelwe Ukushisa Komkhathi
Khona-ke, ukwakheka kwala magesi abangelwa umuntu adala isivuvu kuye kwaba namuphi umphumela osobala? Ososayensi abaningi manje bayavuma ukuthi umhlaba uyashisa. Lokhu kushisa kuye kwenyuka ngezinga elikhulu kangakanani? Umbiko we-IPCC ka-2001 uthi: “Amazinga okushisa embulungeni yonke aye anda ngo-0,4 kuya ku-0,8°C kusukela ngasekupheleni kwekhulu le-19.” Abacwaningi abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi yikho lokhu kuphakama okuncane kwezinga lokushisa okubangela lezi zinguquko ezinkulu esimweni sethu sezulu.
Kuyavunywa ukuthi isimiso sesimo sezulu somhlaba siyinkimbinkimbi ngendlela emangalisayo, futhi ososayensi abakwazi ukusho ngokuqiniseka ukuthi iyini imiphumela yokushisa komkhathi—uma ikhona. Nokho, abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi ngenxa yokushisa komkhathi kuye kwanda izimvula eNyakatho Nenkabazwe, isomiso e-Asia nase-Afrika, nezenzakalo ezandayo zika-El Niño olwandlekazi iPacific.
Kudingeka Ikhambi Lembulunga Yonke
Njengoba abaningi bebheka le nkinga njengedalwe umuntu, umuntu akakwazi yini ukuyixazulula? Kakade, amazwe amaningi asemisé imithetho yokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwamagesi angcolisayo ezimoto nezimboni. Nokho, imizamo enjalo—nakuba incomeka—iye yaba negalelo elincane noma yangaba nalo nhlobo. Ukungcola kuyinkinga yembulunga yonke, ngakho ikhambi kufanele lisetshenziswe yimbulunga yonke! Ngo-1992 kwabizwa iNgqungquthela Yomhlaba eRio de Janeiro. Eminyakeni eyishumi kamuva eGoli, eNingizimu Afrika, kwabanjwa iNgqungquthela Yomhlaba Ngokongiwa Kwamandla Emvelo Okuqhubekayo. Kwaba nezihambeli ezingaba ngu-40 000 kule ngqungquthela ngo-2002, kuhlanganise nabaholi bamazwe abangaba ngu-100.
Imihlangano enjalo iye yaba neqhaza elikhulu ekusizeni ososayensi ukuba bavumelane ngazwi linye. Iphephandaba laseJalimane i-Der Tagesspiegel liyachaza: “Nakuba ososayensi abaningi emuva ngaleso sikhathi [ngo-1992] babeyingabaza imiphumela yokushisa okubangelwa amagesi, akusekho ukungabaza okunjalo namuhla.” Yize kunjalo, ungqongqoshe wezemvelo eJalimane, uJürgen Trittin, usikhumbuza ukuthi ikhambi langempela lale nkinga alikatholakali. Wagcizelela: “Ngakho-ke iNgqungquthela YaseGoli akumelwe ibe ngeyamazwi kuphela, kodwa futhi kumelwe ibe ingqungquthela yesinyathelo.”
Kunganqandeka Yini Ukoniwa Kwemvelo?
Ukushisa komkhathi kumane nje kungenye yezinselele eziningi zemvelo isintu esibhekene nazo namuhla. Kulula ukukhuluma ngokuthatha isinyathelo esisebenzayo, kodwa kungokunye ukusithatha ngempela. Isazi sezilwane saseBrithani uJane Goodall siyabhala: “Njengoba manje sesiwuqaphela umonakalo omkhulu esiwenzile emvelweni yethu, sesisebenzisa bonke ubunyoningco bethu ekutholeni amakhambi ezobuchwepheshe.” Kodwa uyaxwayisa: “Ubuchwepheshe bubodwa abanele. Kumelwe nezinhliziyo zethu zihileleke.”
Ake uphinde futhi ucabangele inkinga yokushisa komkhathi. Izinto zokunqanda ukungcola komoya zimba eqolo; amazwe ampofu awakwazi nhlobo ukuba nazo. Ngenxa yalokho abanye ochwepheshe banovalo lokuthi imithetho yokongiwa kwemvelo izoxosha izimboni zibalekele emazweni ampofu lapho ziyokwazi khona ukuthola inzuzo eningi. Ngenxa yalokho, ngisho nabaholi abanezinhloso ezinhle bazithola bexakekile. Uma bevikela izinzuzo zezomnotho zamazwe abo, imvelo iyalimala. Uma belwela ukuvikela imvelo, bafaka umnotho engozini.
Ngenxa yalokhu, uSevern Cullis-Suzuki, wethimba labeluleki kuleyo Ngqungquthela Yomhlaba, ubonisa ukuthi ukuze kube nenguquko umuntu ngamunye kumelwe abambe iqhaza, ethi: “Inguquko yangempela emvelweni ixhomeke kithi. Asikwazi ukulinda abaholi bethu. Kudingeka sigxile ekwazini eyethu imithwalo yemfanelo nendlela thina esingayiletha ngayo leyo nguquko.”
Kumane nje kunengqondo ukulindela ukuba abantu bayiphathe ngenhlonipho imvelo. Kodwa akulula ukwenza abantu bashintshe indlela yabo yokuphila. Ngokwesibonelo: Abantu abaningi bayavuma ukuthi izimoto zinomthelela ekushiseni komkhathi. Ngakho-ke, umuntu angase afune ukunciphisa indlela ayisebenzisa ngayo imoto noma ukuba angabi nayo nhlobo. Kodwa ukwenza lokhu kungase kungabi lula. Njengoba uWolfgang Sachs we-Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy eWuppertal esanda kubonisa muva nje, “zonke izindawo ezifeza indima ethile ekuphileni kwansuku zonke (emsebenzini, enkulisa, esikoleni, esitolo) ziqhelelene kakhulu kangangokuba awukwazi ukuzifinyelela ngaphandle kwemoto. . . . Akuyona indaba yokuthi ngiyayifuna yini mina imoto noma cha. Abantu abaningi bamane nje abanakho ukuzikhethela kule ndaba.”
Ososayensi abathile, njengoProfesa Robert Dickinson we-Institute of Technology’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences eGeorgia, banovalo lokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi sekwephuze kakhulu ukuba kuvikelwe umhlaba emiphumeleni yokushisa komkhathi. UDickinson ukholelwa ukuthi ngisho noma ukungcoliswa komhlaba bekungayekwa namuhla, imiphumela yokunukubezwa komkhathi kwesikhathi esidlule ibisazoqhubeka ikhona okungenani iminyaka eyikhulu!
Njengoba kungekho hulumeni noma abantu abakwaziyo ukuxazulula izinkinga zemvelo, ubani okwaziyo? Kwasendulo, abantu babebheka emazulwini ukuze bathole usizo ekulawuleni isimo sezulu. Nakuba imizamo enjalo yayingabonakala iwubuntwana, kodwa yembula iqiniso eliyisisekelo: Isintu sidinga usizo lukaNkulunkulu ukuze sixazulule lezi zinkinga.
[Amazwi acashunwe esihlokweni ekhasini 7]
“Kunobufakazi obusha nobunamandla ngokwengeziwe bokuthi ukushisa okukhulu okuye kwaphawuleka kule minyaka engu-50 edlule kubangelwé izenzo zabantu”
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“Ingabe Ukushisa Komkhathi Kuyingozi Empilweni?”
Lo mbuzo othakazelisayo waphakanyiswa yisihloko se-Scientific American. Sabikezela ukuthi ukushisa komkhathi “kuyokwandisa futhi kubhebhethekise izifo eziningi ezinkulu.” Ngokwesibonelo, kwezinye izindawo “kulinganiselwa ukuthi inani labantu ababulawa isivuvu sokushisa liyophindeka kabili ngo-2020.”
Okunganakiwe kakhulu yindima ukushisa komkhathi okungaba nayo ezifweni ezithathelwanayo. “Izifo ezithwalwa omiyane kuthiwa ziya ngokuya zidlanga,” njengoba omiyane “banda ngokushesha futhi beluma kakhulu lapho umoya ushisa. . . . Khona-ke lapho sekushisa yonke indawo ezindaweni eziningi omiyane bangasakazekela nasezindaweni ababengeke baphile kuzo ngaphambili, beze nezifo kulezo zindawo.”
Ekugcineni, kunemiphumela yezikhukhula nesomiso—kokubili okungayingcolisa imithombo yamanzi. Ngokusobala usongo lokushisa komkhathi kumelwe lusukunyelwe.
[Isithombe ekhasini 7]
Amagesi abangela ukushisa enza ukushisa kwakheke emkhathini wethu kungaphumeli ngalé kwawo
[Umthombo]
NASA photo
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Umuntu uye wakhiphela emoyeni izinkulungwane zezigidi zamathani ezinto ezingcolisayo, ezisheshisa ukwakheka kwamagesi abangela ukushisa