Chii Chiri Kuitika Kumamiriro Okunze?
“Mafashamo anoparadza nemadutu akakomba atiri kuona zvino achawedzera.”—THOMAS LOSTER, NYANZVI YENGOZI DZEMAMIRIRO OKUNZE.
PANE chimwe chinhu chisina kumira zvakanaka here mumamiriro okunze? Vazhinji vanotyira kuti chiripo. Nyanzvi yezvemamiriro okunze Dr. Peter Werner yokuPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research inoti: “Patinocherechedza mamiriro okunze enyika yose—kuwandisa kwemvura, mafashamo, kusanaya kwemvura, madutu—tocherecheredza kukura kwazvo, tinogona kutaura nenzira yakarurama kuti maitiro okunyanyisa aya akawedzera kakapetwa kana mumakore 50 akapfuura.”
Vazhinji vanofunga kuti mamiriro okunze asiri enguva dzose uchapupu hwokudziya kwepasi rose—kudziya kwepasi uku kuri kuparadza zvikuru. Environmental Protection Agency yeUnited States inotsanangura kuti: “Kudziya kwepasi zvinoreva kuwedzera kupisa kuri kuitika pasi pano nokuti mamwe magasi ari mumhepo (mvura yakaita utsi, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, uye methane, somuenzaniso) anobata simba rinobva kuzuva. Pasina magasi aya kupisa kwaizodzokera mudenga uye kupisa kwePasi paavhareji kwaizoderera ne33°C.”
Zvisinei, vazhinji vanopa mhosva yokuti munhu nokuchenjeresa akakanganisa zvinhu zvaingoitika zvoga izvi. Imwe nyaya yeEarth Observatory, rimwe bhuku rinowanikwa paindaneti reNational Aeronautics and Space Administration yokuUnited States rinoti: “Kwemakumi emakore mafekitari evanhu nemotokari zvakazadza mhepo nemabhiriyoni ematani emagasi anodziyisa pasi . . . Masayendisiti mazhinji anotyira kuti kuwedzera kuwanda kwemagasi anodziyisa pasi kwakatadzisa kupisa kwakawedzera kubva pano Pasi. Chaizvoizvo, magasi aya ari kubata kupisa kwakanyanyisa kuti kurambe kuri mumhepo iri pamusoro pePasi nenzira imwe chete iyo hwindisikirini inobata nayo kupisa kunopinda mumotokari.”
Vamwe vanoramba vachiti chikamu chiduku bedzi chemagasi anodziyisa pasi ndicho chinokonzerwa nevanhu. Zvisinei, rimwe boka rokutsvakurudza mashoko rinonzi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iro rinotsigirwa neWorld Meteorological Organization uye United Nations Environment Programme, rinoshuma kuti: “Kune uchapupu hutsva uye hwakasimba hwokuti kupisa kuzhinji kwakacherechedzwa mumakore 50 akapfuura kunokonzerwa nemabasa evanhu.”
Nyanzvi yezvemamiriro okunze Pieter Tans wokuNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anoti: “Dai ndaizoisa nhamba youkuru hwacho, ndaizoti 60 muzana imhosva yedu . . . Imwe 40 muzana yasara inokonzerwa nezvinongozviitikirawo zvoga.”
Zvingangova Mugumo Wokudziya Kwepasi
Saka zvino chii chave chiri mugumisiro uri pachena wokuungana kwemagasi anodziyisa pasi anokonzerwa nevanhu? Masayendisiti mazhinji zvino anobvuma kuti pasi pari kupisa zvechokwadi. Kupisa uku kwakambowedzera zvakakura sei? Mushumo weIPCC wa2001 unoti: “Kupisa kwepamusoro penyika kwakawedzera nepakati pe0,4 ne0,8°C kubva mukunopera kwezana remakore rechi19.” Vatsvakurudzi vazhinji vanodavira kuti kukwira kuduku uku kunogona kuva chikonzero chokuchinja kukuru kwemamiriro edu okunze.
Chokwadi, mamiriro okunze epasi pano akaoma kunzwisisa zvinoshamisa, uye masayendisiti haagoni kutaura nechivimbo kuti chii—kana chiripo—chinokonzerwa nokudziya kwepasi pose. Zvisinei, vazhinji vanodavira kuti somugumisiro wokudziya kwepasi pose, mvura yakawedzera kunaya kuNorthern Hemisphere, kusanaya kwemvura muAsia neAfrica uye zviitiko zvinoramba zvichiwedzera zveEl Niño muPacific.
Chinodiwa—Kugadzirisa Nyika Yose
Sezvo vazhinji vachiona chinetso ichi sechinoparirwa nevanhu, havagoni kugadzirisa chinetso chacho here? Nzanga dzinoverengeka dzakatodzika mitemo inoderedza kusvibiswa kwemhepo nemotokari nemafekitari. Zvisinei, kuedza kwakadaro—kunyange zvazvo kuchirumbidzwa—kwakabatsira zvishoma kana kuti hakuna zvakwakabatsira. Kusvibisa chinetso chenyika yose, naizvozvo kugadzirisa kwacho kwaizofanira kuitwa munyika yose! Muna 1992 kwakaitwa musangano wainzi Earth Summit muRio de Janeiro. Pashure pemakore gumi, musangano wainzi World Summit on Sustainable Development wakaitwa muJohannesburg, South Africa. Vanhu vanenge 40 000 vakapinda musangano uyu muna 2002, kusanganisira vatungamiriri venyika vanenge 100.
Misangano yakadaro yakaita zvakawanda kuita kuti pave nokubvumirana pakati pemasayendisiti. Pepanhau reGermany rinonzi Der Tagesspiegel rinotsanangura kuti: “Nepo masayendisiti akawanda kare ikoko [muna 1992] akanga asina chokwadi pamusoro pokudziya kwepasi, nhasi hapachina ane mubvunzo.” Kunyange zvakadaro, gurukota rezvakatipoteredza reGermany, Jürgen Trittin, anotiyeuchidza kuti mhinduro chaiyo yechinetso chacho haisati yawanikwa. “Naizvozvo musangano weJohannesburg haufaniri kungova wemashoko,” akasimbisa kudaro, “asiwo musangano wechiito.”
Kuparadza Zvakatipoteredza Kunogona Kumiswa Here?
Kudziya kwepasi pose chinongova chimwe chezvinetso zvezvakatipoteredza izvo vanhu vari kutarisana nazvo. Kuita chiito chinoshanda kungava nyore kwazvo kutaura pane kuchiita. “Zvino zvatazoziva pakupedzisira nezvokuparadza kukuru kwatakaita zvakatipoteredza,” inonyora kudaro imwe nyanzvi yezvakatipoteredza yeBritain, Jane Goodall, “tiri kushandisa uchenjeri hwedu hwose kufunga nezvounyanzvi hwokuzvigadzirisa.” Asi anonyevera kuti: “Unyanzvi hwokugadzira hwoga hahuna kukwana. Tinofanira kushanda nemwoyo yeduwo.”
Funga zvekare nezvechinetso chokudziya kwepasi pose. Matanho anodzivirira kusvibisa anoda mari; kazhinji, nyika dzisina mari hadzimbogoni kuatevedza. Naizvozvo dzimwe nyanzvi dzinotyira kuti kuisa mitemo inodzora simba romoto kuchaita kuti vemaindasitiri vatizire kunyika dzine urombo kwavanogona kunoshanda vachiwana mari yakawanda. Naizvozvo, kunyange vatungamiriri vane chinangwa chakanaka vanozongoona vave pakati nepakati. Kana vakachengetedza upfumi hwenyika yavo, zvakatipoteredza zvinoparara. Kana vakasimbirira kuchengeta zvakatipoteredza, vanoisa upfumi mungozi.
Severn Cullis-Suzuki, wedare rinopa mazano reWorld Summit naizvozvo anoti kuchinja kunofanira kuuya nechiito chomunhu mumwe nomumwe achiti: “Kuchinja chaiko kwezvakatipoteredza kunoenderana nezvatinoita isu. Hatigoni kumirira vatungamiriri vedu. Tinofanira kuisa pfungwa dzedu pane zvatinofanira kuita isu pachedu uye kuti tingaita sei kuti zvinhu zvichinje.”
Zvinonzwisisika kutarisira vanhu kuratidza kuremekedza zvakavapoteredza mumufambiro wavo. Asi kuita kuti vanhu vachinje sezvinodiwa mumararamiro avo hazvisi nyore. Kupa somuenzaniso: Vanhu vazhinji vanobvuma kuti motokari ndidzo dzimwe dzinowedzera kudziyisa pasi pose. Asi, munhu angada kuderedza kushandisa motokari kana kuti kutorarama asina zvake. Asi kuita kudaro kungasava nyore. Seizvo Wolfgang Sachs wepaWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy akataura nguva pfupi yapfuura, “nzvimbo dzose dzinoita basa rinokosha muupenyu hwezuva nezuva (kubasa, kukireshi, kuchikoro, kana kuti kumagirosa) zviri kure nakure zvokuti haungazvigoni usina motokari. . . . Zvokuti ini pachangu ndinoda motokari kana kuti kwete handizvo zvinokosha. Vanhu vazhinji havana mamwe maitiro.”
Mamwe masayendisiti, akadai saPurofesa Robert Dickinson weGeorgia Institute of Technology’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, anotyira kuti tingadaro takatononoka pakuedza kuponesa pasi pamigumisiro yokudziya kwepasi pose. Dickinson anodavira kuti kunyange kudai kusvibisa kwaizomira nhasi migumisiro yokukanganisa mhepo kwakatoitwa kare kwaizongogara kwemamwe makore anenge 100!
Sezvo hurumende kana vanhu vakazvimirira vasingagoni kupedza zvinetso zvezvakatipoteredza, ndiani anogona? Kubva munguva dzekare, vaitarira kudenga vachitsvaka rubatsiro rwokudzora mamiriro okunze. Nokushaya ungwaru kwokuedza kwakadaro, zvinoratidza chokwadi chinokosha: Vanhu vanoda kubatsirwa naMwari kugadzirisa zvinetso izvi.
[Mashoko okukwezva vaverengi ari papeji 7]
“Pane uchapupu hutsva uye hwakasimba hwokuti kudziya kuzhinji kwakacherechedzwa mumakore 50 akapfuura kwakakonzerwa nemabasa evanhu”
[Bhokisi riri papeji 6]
“Kudziya Kwepasi Kune Ngozi Kuutano Here?”
Imwe nyaya yakanga iri muScientific American yaiva nomubvunzo uyu unoshamisa. Yaifungidzira kuti kudziya kwepasi “kuchawedzera kuitika nokupararira kwezvirwere zvakakomba zvakawanda.” Somuenzaniso, mune dzimwe nzvimbo “nhamba yenzufu dzinokonzerwa nokupisa dzinofungidzirwa kuti dzichapetwa nekaviri panosvika 2020.”
Chisinganyatsozivikanwi ndizvo zvinogona kukonzerwa nokudziya kwepasi pazvirwere zvinotapukira. “Zvirwere zvinotakurwa noumhutu zvinofungidzirwa kuti zvichawedzera,” sezvo umhutu “huchiberekana nokukurumidza uye huchiwedzera kuruma mhepo sezvainodziya. . . . Sezvo nzvimbo yose inopisa, umhutu hunogona kuwedzera huchipinda munzvimbo mahwaimborambidzwa, huchiuya nezvirwere.”
Pakupedzisira kune migumisiro yemafashamo nokusanaya kwemvura—zvose zvinogona kuguma nokusvibiswa kwemvura. Zviri pachena kuti njodzi yokudziya kwepasi inofanira kuonekwa sechinetso chakakomba.
[Mufananidzo uri papeji 7]
Kudziya kwepasi kunokonzera kuti kupisa kugare mumhepo pane kuti kuende muchadenga
[Kwazvakatorwa]
NASA photo
[Mifananidzo iri papeji 7]
Vanhu vakaisa mabhiriyoni ematani ezvinosvibisa mumhepo, vachiwedzera kudziya kwepasi