Kutheni Kufuneka Uhlobo Olutsha Lomthombo Wamandla?

“Ukuba sicinga ukuba ioli iyingxaki ngoku, linda nje wena iminyaka engama-20. Ngelo xesha iza kube iyintlungu nje kuphela.”—UJeremy Rifkin, weFoundation of Economic Trends, yaseWashington, D.C., ngoAgasti 2003.

KWIMINYAKA emalunga nama-20—xa uMicah oselula eya kube emdala ngokwaneleyo ukuba aqhube imoto—ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ehlabathini lonke “kulindeleke ukuba kwande ngama-58 ekhulwini,” itsho njalo ingxelo karhulumente waseMerika ye-International Energy Outlook yowama-2003 (IEO2003). Iphephancwadi iNew Scientist ichaza olu qikelelo ngokuthi “kokona kunqongophala kwemithombo yamandla kwakha kwakho embalini.” Ngaba imithombo yamandla eqhelekileyo inokukwazi ukumelana nale ntswelo? Khawuqwalasele le ngxelo yothusayo.

AMALAHLE:

◼ Kuzo zonke izinto zokuphehla amandla, amalahle ngawona maninzi, yaye kuqikelelwa ukuba lawo akoovimba aya kuhlala ekho kangangeminyaka eli-1 000. Ehlabathini lonke, phantse ama-40 ekhulwini kumaziko aphehla umbane asebenzisa amalahle. IOstreliya lelona lizwe lishishina ngamalahle, liwathumela phantse kwilizwe elinye kwamathathu ehlabathini.

Kodwa, ingxelo yakutshanje yeWorldwatch Institute ithi: “Amalahle ngawona akhupha igesi eninzi yekharbhon kumandla afunyanwa kwizimbiwa, ekhuphela emoyeni ikharbhon engaphezulu ngama-29 ekhulwini kuleyo ikhutshwa yioli, nengaphezulu ngama-80 ekhulwini kuleyo yegesi. Ama-43 ekhulwini ekharbhon esemoyeni ehlabathini lonke, phantse iitoni ezisisi-2,7 zamawaka ezigidi, afumaneka emalahleni.” Ukongezelela ekungcoliseni kwawo umoya, ukusetyenziswa kwamalahle kunokuyichaphazela njani impilo yabantu? Ngokomzekelo, ingxelo yakutshanje yeUnited Nations Global Environment Outlook 2000 ithe: “ETshayina, umsi namasuntswana abangelwa kukutshiswa kwamalahle ungunobangela wokuzalwa kwabantwana abafileyo abangama-50 000 nokugula kwabantu abangama-400 000 sisifo semiphunga esinganyangekiyo kwizixeko zalapho ezili-11 ezikhulu.”

IOLI:

◼ Ihlabathi sele lisebenzisa imiphanda engama-75 ezigidi zeoli ngemini. Kubo bonke oovimba beoli abasehlabathini, ekuqikelelwa ukuba bathwala malunga nezigidi ezibini zezigidi zeoli, phantse sele kusetyenziswe imiphanda engama-900 amawaka ezigidi. Ngomkhamo esetyenziswa ngawo ioli, kuthelekelelwa ukuba oovimba bayo baya kugqiba nje iminyaka engama-40 bekho.

Kodwa ngowe-1998 izazinzulu ngokwakhiwa komhlaba uColin J. Campbell noJean H. Laherrère zathi: “Kwakule minyaka ilishumi izayo, oovimba ekufunxwa kubo ioli abayi kukwazi ukumelana nentswelo ekhoyo yeoli.” Ezi ngcali zoshishino lweoli zalumkisa ngelithi: “Abantu banembono ephosakeleyo yokuba ioli inokuphela nanini na ingabhungisanga. Enyanisweni, naliphi na iqula—okanye ilizwe—umlinganiselo elikhupha ngawo ioli usoloko unyuka gqitha ize ithi xa ioli eseleyo imalunga nesiqingatha uqale ukwehla umlinganiselo de kungabikho nto iphumayo. Ngoko ke, abezoqoqosho abakhathazeki xa ioli sele iphele tu ehlabathini oko akubalulekanga kangako: eyona nto ibakhathaza kakhulu kukuhla ngokuthe ngcembe kwemveliso yayo.”

Kunini apho kulindeleke ukuba imveliso yeoli ishokoxeke? Ingcali ngeoli uJoseph Riva ithi “ukwandiswa okucetywayo kokuveliswa kweoli . . . kungaphantsi kwesiqingatha saleyo iya kube ifuneka ehlabathini ngowe-2010 ngokutsho kweIEA [International Energy Agency].” INew Scientist ilumkisa isithi: “Ukuba imveliso iyancipha ngoxa iya ifuneka ngakumbi, kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso leoli linyuke gqitha okanye lingalawuleki, lize libangele isiphithiphithi kwezoqoqosho, kubekho iingxaki zokuthutha ukutya nezinye izinto kuze kuqhambuke nemfazwe njengoko amazwe esilwa ngaloo ntwana yeoli iseleyo.”

Ngoxa abanye abahlalutyi bejonga ukushokoxeka kweoli njengengxaki, abanye bavakalelwa kukuba, ukuba inokuphela ioli sakutsho siyeke ukuxhomekeka kuyo. Ebhala kwiphephancwadi iUtne Reader, uJeremiah Creedon uthi: “Eyona nto iyingozi bubukho beoli kunokuphela kwayo. Ikharbhon diokside esiyikhuphayo xa sipheka ioli iya iwenza shushu ngakumbi umhlaba ukanti xa kuxutyushwa ngemeko yezoqoqosho neyomhlaba ezo zinto zigqalwa njengemiba eyahlukeneyo.” Itsalela ingqalelo kwimiphumo yokufuna kwelinye ilizwe ioli ngamehlw’ amnyama, kwingxelo yayo iAustralian Broadcasting Commission ithi: “Iimoto ezingama-26 ezigidi zingunobangela wesinye kwisithathu sayo yonke ikharbhon diokside ekwelaseUnited Kingdom (nto leyo ebangela ukufudumala komhlaba) nesinye kwisithathu sokungcola komoya welo (okubangela ukufa kwabantu abali-10 000 nyaka ngamnye kwelo).”

IGESI:

◼ Kwiminyaka enokuba ngaphezu kwama-20 ezayo, “igesi iza kuba ngowona mthombo wamandla uphambili ehlabathini lonke,” itsho njalo ingxelo yeIEO2003. Igesi ngowona mthombo wamandla afumaneka kwizimbiwa ungabangeli ungcoliseko kangako, yaye kukholelwa ukuba ininzi ngendlela engathethekiyo igesi esemhlabeni.

Noko ke, iNatural Gas Supply Association yaseWashington, D.C. ithi: “Akakho umntu owazi kakuhle ukuba ingakanani igesi ekhoyo de ibe itsaliwe. Ubungakanani bayo buyaqikelelwa nje kuphela . . . Ngoko ke, kunzima ukwazi eyona nyaniso ngobungakanani begesi ekhoyo.”

Imethane yeyona nxalenye iphambili yegesi, yaye “yeyona inegalelo kubushushu bomhlaba. Enyanisweni, imethane inokukwazi ukubamba ubushushu phantse izihlandlo ezingama-21 ukodlula ikharbhon diokside,” itsho njalo le Web site. Ukanti le ngxelo ithi uhlolisiso olwenziwe yiEnvironmental Protection Agency neGas Research Institute “lwabonisa ukuba ukuze kuncitshiswe umoya ongcolileyo, ukusetyenziswa kwegesi kokona kubhetele phezu kwako nje ukwanda kwe-methane.”

AMANDLA EATHOM:

◼ Ingxelo yeAustralian Geographic ithi: “Amalunga nama-430 amaziko enyukliya enzelwe ukuphehla umbane olingana ne-16 ekhulwini kulowo usetyenziswa ehlabathini.” Ukongezelela kula akhoyo, ingxelo yeIEO2003 ithi: “Ehlabathini lonke angama-35 amaziko akhiwayo ngoku yaye ukususela ngoFebruwari 2003, elaseAsia lakha ali-17.”

Ukusetyenziswa kombane oveliswa ngenyukliya kusaqhubeka phezu kwazo nje iintlekele ezinokuvela, njengaleyo yehle ngowe-1986 eChernobyl, kwelo lalisakuba yiSoviet Union. INew Scientist ithi, “amaziko enyukliya aphehla umbane eMerika athwaxwa ziintanda nokonakala” yaye ngoMatshi 2002, elo kuthiwa yiDavis-Besse, eOhio laphants’ ukuvuthuluka ngenxa yokonakala kwalo.

Xa siqwalasela ukunqongophala kwemithombo yamandla neengozi ezibandakanyekileyo kule mithombo, kuphakama lo mbuzo, Ngaba abantu baza kunyanzeleka ukuba bawonakalise umhlaba ngenxa yokufuna kwabo amandla ngendlela engathethekiyo? Licacile elokuba siyawufuna umthombo wamandla ococekileyo, onokuthenjwa. Ngaba loo mthombo unokufumaneka ngexabiso elinokufikeleleka?