Isisongelo Senyukliya—Ngaba Ekugqibeleni Siphelile?
“UXOLO eMhlabeni lubonakala lunokubakho ngoku kunanini na ngaphambili ukususela ngeMfazwe Yehlabathi II.” Le ngxelo ibonisa ukuba nethemba eyanikelwa ngumbhaleli weendaba ekupheleni kweminyaka yee-1980 yayisekelwe kwisibakala sokuba izivumelwano zokuncitshiswa kwezixhobo okuphawulekayo nokuphela kweengxwabangxwaba zobupolitika ebekungalindelekanga ekugqibeleni zaye zaphelisa iMfazwe Yomlomo. Kodwa ngaba isisongelo senyukliya, nto leyo eyayibonakala ingundoqo kungquzulwano negunya ebelifudula lilelikhulu, naso siphelile? Ngaba ngokwenene uxolo nonqabiseko olungapheliyo lwalubonakala lunokubakho kungekudala?
Iingozi Zokwanda Kwazo
Ebudeni bexesha leMfazwe Yomlomo, ngoxa yayikukoyikana kuphela okwakuwenza alondoloze uxolo, amagunya amakhulu avumelana ngokwandisa ulwazi ngenyukliya ngenjongo yokuzisa uxolo kodwa kubekho imiqathango engokusetyenziswa kwayo ekwenzeni izixhobo zenyukliya. Ngowe-1970 kwatyobelwa iSivumelwano Sokuncitshiswa Kwezixhobo Zenyukliya; kamva samkelwa ngamazwe anokuba li-140. Ukanti, amazwe awayenokuba nazo izixhobo zenyukliya, njengeArgentina, iBrazil, i-Indiya nelakwaSirayeli, aye akavuma ukutyobela kude kube namhlanje.
Noko ke, ngowe-1985, elinye igunya elinokuba nazo izixhobo zenyukliya, uMntla Korea, latyobela. Ngoko xa lavakalisa ukurhoxa kwesi sivumelwano ngoMatshi 12, 1993, ngokusengqiqweni ihlabathi alizange lonwabe. Iphephancwadi leendaba laseJamani iDer Spiegel lathi: “Isaziso sokurhoxa kwiSivumelwano Sokuncitshiswa Kwezixhobo Zenyukliya sibubungqina bokuba: Ngoku kukho isisongelo sokhuphiswano lwezixhobo zenyukliya, ukususela eAsia, nto leyo enokuba yingozi nangaphezu kokhuphiswano lokwenziwa kwebhombu ngamagunya amakhulu.”
Ekubeni ubunashinali buvelisa amazwe amaninzi amatsha ngendlela emangalisayo, inani lamagunya anezixhobo zenyukliya kusenokwenzeka ukuba liza kwanda. (Bona ibhokisi.) UCharles Krauthammer oyintatheli ulumkisa esithi: “Ukuphela kwesisongelo saseSoviet akuthethi ukuphela kwengozi yenyukliya. Eyona ngozi yokwenene kukwanda kwawo, yaye aqalise ukwanda kanye ngoku.”
Ukuthengiswa Kwebhombu
Amagunya aza kuba nezixhobo zenyukliya alangazelela iwonga namandla abangelwa kukuba nezi zixhobo. Elinye ilizwe kuthiwa liye lathenga ubuncinane imijukujelwa emibini yenyukliya eKazakhstan. Eli lizwe elalisakuba yiriphabliki yaseSoviet ngokwasemthethweni liyibala le mijukujelwa ngokuthi “ilahlekile.”
Ngo-Oktobha 1992 iqela lamadoda labanjwa eFrankfurt, eJamani, lineegram ezingama-200 zecesium enemitha yeathom eyingozi gqitha, isixa esaneleyo ukutyhefa onke amanzi esixeko. Kwiveki kamva, kwabanjwa abathengisi abangekho mthethweni abasixhenxe eMunich beneekhilogram ezisisi-2,2 zeuranium. Ukufunyanwa kwala maqela mabini angabathengisi abangekho mthethweni bezinto zenyukliya kwabamangalisa gqitha abasemagunyeni, ekubeni zintlanu kuphela izenzo ezinjalo eziye zachazwa ehlabathini lonke kuwo wonke unyaka ophelileyo.
Enoba aba bantu babenenjongo yokuthengisela amaqela abagrogrisi okanye oorhulumente bamazwe akwaziwa. Sekunjalo, amathuba okuba abagrogrisi basebenzise inyukliya ayanda. UGqr. David Lowry we-European Proliferation Information Centre uchaza le ngozi ngokuthi: “Kuphela umgrogrisi unokuthumela umxube onamandla we-uranium kwigosa elithile eliphambili ukuze liwuhlole, aze alixelele ukuba unesixa esithile yaye nabu ubungqina. Oku kunjengomqweqwedisi othumela indlebe yexhoba.”
“Iibhombu Ezithiyelwe Ixesha Elithile” Kunye “Nemigibe Yokufa” Yoxolo
Ekuqaleni kowe-1992, izixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya ezingama-420 zazixakekile kwiphulo loxolo lokuvelisa umbane; ezinye ezingama-76 zazisakhiwa. Kodwa ekuhambeni kweminyaka, iingozi ezibangelwe zezi zixhobo ziye zakhokelela kwiingxelo zokugula okwandayo, iimfambilini nabantwana abazalwa beneziphene. Ingxelo ithi ngowe-1967 iziganeko ezenzeka kumzi-mveliso waseSoviet weplutonium zasasaza imitha eyiphindaphinda kathathu leyo yasasazeka kwintlekele yaseChernobyl.
Kambe ke, esi siganeko samva saseChernobyl, eUkraine, ngoAprili 1986 sasingumxholo ophambili weendaba. UGrigori Medwedew, isekela lenjineli engusomaqhuzu kumzi-mveliso wenyukliya eChernobyl ebudeni beminyaka yee-1970, uchaza ukuba “ilifu elikhulu lemitha yeathom eyayinemiphumo ehlala ixesha elide” elanyukela esibhakabhakeni “linokuziphindaphinda kalishumi iibhombu zaseHiroshima xa kuthelekiswa imiphumo yayo ehlala ixesha elide.”
Kwincwadi yakhe ethi Tschernobylskaja chronika, lo kaMedwedew ubala iziganeko ezikhulu ezili-11 ezenzeka kumaziko amandla enyukliya eSoviet Union phakathi kwiminyaka yee-1980 nezinye ezili-12 ezenzeka eUnited States. Ezi zamva zaziquka nengozi eyothusayo yowe-1979 eThree Mile Island. Ngeso siganeko lo kaMedwedew uthi: “Oku kwalonakalisa udumo lwamandla enyukliya kwaza kwabangela amathandabuzo ezingqondweni zabaninzi ngokukhuseleka kwemizi-mveliso yamandla enyukliya—kodwa ingekuko ezingqondweni zabo bonke.”
Oku kubonisa isizathu sokuba kube kusenzeka iintlekele. Ebudeni bowe-1992 ziye zanda eRashiya phantse ngama-20 ekhulwini. Emva kwesinye sezi ziganeko, ngoMatshi waloo nyaka kwisikhululo samandla ombane eSosnovy Bore eSt. Petersburg, eRashiya, umlinganiselo wemitha waphakama kangangama-50 ekhulwini emntla-mpuma Ngilani waza wawuphinda kabini umlinganiselo owamkelekileyo e-Estonia nasemazantsi eFinland. Unjingalwazi John Urquhart weYunivesithi yaseNewcastle uyavuma esithi: “Andinabungqina bokuba yiSosnovy Bore eyayandisayo—kodwa ukuba yayingeyoSosnovy Bore, yandiswa yintoni?”
Wambi amagosa athi izixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya ezinjengezaseChernobyl zacetywa kakubi yaye kuyingozi gqitha ukuzisebenzisa. Sekunjalo, ziliqela ezisetyenziswa ukunceda ukuvelisa umbane ofunwa gqitha. Bambi kwabo basebenzisa izixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya babekw’ ityala lokuyicima inkqubo yokulalel’ ingozi ukuze bavelise umbane ongakumbi. Iingxelo ezinjengezi zibangela uloyiko kumazwe anjengeFransi, mazwe lawo asebenzisa imizi-mveliso yenyukliya ukuvelisa ama-70 ekhulwini ombane wawo. Enye “iChernobyl,” noninzi lwemizi-mveliso yaseFransi kusenokunyanzeleka ukuba ivale ngokupheleleyo.
Kwanezixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya ekuthiwa “zikhuselekile” kubonakala ukuba ziba zezingakhuselekanga ekuhambeni kwexesha ngenxa yobudala. Ekuqaleni kowe-1993, ebudeni bokuhlolwa okuqhelekileyo kokukhuseleka kwazo, kwafunyaniswa iintanda ezingaphezu kwezilikhulu kwimibhobho yentsimbi kwizixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya eBrunsbüttel, esinye sezona zidala eJamani. Kuye kwafunyanwa iintanda ezifanayo kwizixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya eFransi naseSwitzerland. Ingozi yokuqala enkulu kumzi-mveliso waseJapan yenzeka ngowe-1991, yaye le ngozi isenokuba yabangelwa bubudala bazo. Oku kuzindaba ezimbi kwiUnited States, apho izixhobo ezimalunga nezibini kwezithathu zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya kwezorhwebo zingaphezu kweminyaka elishumi ubudala.
Iingozi ezibangelwa zizixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya zinokwenzeka naphi na nanini na. Okukhona zisanda izixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya, kokukhona sisanda isisongelo; okukhona isixhobo sisiya siba sidala, kokukhona ingozi iya isanda. Elinye iphephandaba lalinesizathu sokuzibiza ngokuthi ziibhombu zokufa ezinokudubula nanini kwaye zizigu zokufa ezikhupha imitha yeathom.
Inkunkuma Imele Ilahlwe Phi?
Kutshanje abantu baye bothuka kukubona indawo yokwenza ipikiniki ngasemlanjeni kwiiFrench Alps ivaliwe yaye ilindwe ngabakwantsasana. Iphephandaba iThe European lacacisa: “Ukuhlolwa okwenziwa ngamaxesha athile okuye kwafuneka kwenziwe emva kokufa kwebhinqa elithile lasekuhlaleni ngenxa yetyhefu i-beryllium kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidluleyo kwatyhila ukuba ukusasazeka kwemitha yeathom kule ndawo yepikiniki kuphindaphindwe kali-100 kuneminye imimandla eyingqongileyo.”
Iberyllium, isinyithi esithile esilula ngokumangalisayo esiveliswa ngeenkqubo ezahlukahlukeneyo, sisetyenziswa kwimizi-mveliso yeenqwelo-moya yaye, xa siye sagqatswa ngemitha yeathom, sisetyenziswa kumaziko amandla enyukliya. Kubonakala ukuba umzi-mveliso ovelisa iberyllium uye walahla inkunkuma ephuma kwinkqubo yokulungiswa kwesinyithi ngemitha yeathom eyingozi kule ndawo yepikiniki okanye kufuphi nayo. IThe European yathi: “Inkunkuma ye-beryllium, enoba ayikhange igqatswe ngemitha yeathom, yenye yezona nkunkuma ziyingozi ekhoyo kwimizi-mveliso.”
Okwangoku, iinkonkxa ezinokuba ngama-17 000 ezinenkunkuma enemitha yeathom kuthiwa ziye zalahlwa kwithuba elingangeminyaka engaphezu kwama-30 kumanzi akunxweme lweNovaya Zemlya, ndawo leyo eyayisetyenziswa ngabemi baseSoviet njengendawo yokuvavanya inyukliya ebudeni beminyaka yee-1950. Ukongezelela, iindawo ezithile kwiinkwili zenyukliya ezinemitha yeathom namacandelo athile ubuncinane ali-12 ezixhobo zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya alahlwa kule ndawo ifanelekileyo yokulahla inkunkuma.
Enoba lwenziwa ngabom okanye akunjalo, ungcoliso lwenyukliya luyingozi. ITime yalumkisa ngenkwili eyazika kunxweme lwaseNorway ngowe-1989 yathi: “Loo nkwili ikhupha i-cesium-137, i-carcinogenic isotope. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku oko kuphuma kuyo kugqalwa kukuncinane gqitha ukuba kuchaphazele izidalwa zasemanzini okanye impilo yabantu. Kodwa kwakhona iKomsomolets yayithwele imijukujelwa emibini yenyukliya eyayine-plutonium eyayili-13 kg enokuhlala ikho iminyaka engama-24 000 njengesiqingatha sobomi bayo yaye iyityhefu kangangokuba isuntswana nje layo linokubulala. Iingcali zaseRashiya zalumkisa zisithi i-plutonium inokuchitheka emanzini ize ibangele ityhefu kwiilwandle ezinkulu engadlulanga owe-1994.”
Kambe ke, ukulahlwa kwenkunkuma enemitha yeathom akuyongxaki yaseFransi naseRashiya kuphela. ITime inikela ingxelo yokuba iUnited States “ineengqimba ezinkulu zenkunkuma enemitha yeathom yaye ayinandawo isisigxina yokuyigcina.” Ithi iinkonkxa ezisisigidi zezinto eziyingozi zigcinwe kwindawo yokwexeshana ekusoloko kukho “ingozi yokulahleka, ukubiwa nokuba zonakalise imeko-bume ngenxa yokuphathwa ngendlela engeyiyo.”
Ngokungathi lalifuna ukubonisa le ngozi, itanki eligcina inkunkuma yenyukliya kumzi-mveliso owawusakuba ngowezixhobo eTomsk, eSiberia, ladubula ngoAprili 1993, nto leyo eyabangela koyikwe kucingwa ngengozi enjengeyaseChernobyl.
Ngokucacileyo, naziphi na izibhengezo zoxolo nonqabiseko ezivakaliswa kuba kusithiwa isisongelo senyukliya siphelile azinasiseko. Ukanti uxolo nonqabiseko lukufuphi. Sazi njani?
[Ibhokisi ekwiphepha 4]
AMAGUNYA ANEZIXHOBO ZENYUKLIYA
Ali-12 Yaye Asanda
EKUTHIWA ANAZO okanye ANAZO NGOKWENENE: YiBelarus, iBritani, iFransi, i-Indiya, iKazakhstan, uMzantsi Afrika, iPakistan, iRashiya, elakwaSirayeli, iTshayina, iUkraine, iUnited States
ASENOKUBA NAZO: IAlgeria, iArgentina, iBrazil, i-Iran, i-Iraq, iLibya, uMntla Korea, uMzantsi Korea, iSyria, iTaiwan
[Umfanekiso okwiphepha 5]
Kwanendlela eseluxolweni yokusetyenziswa kwamandla enyukliya inokuba yingozi
[Inkcazelo]
Background: U.S. National Archives photo
[Inkcazelo Ngomfanekiso okwiphepha 2]
Cover: Stockman/International Stock
[Inkcazelo Ngomfanekiso okwiphepha 3]
U.S. National Archives photo