Ingabe Seluphelile Usongo Lwenuzi?
SEKUYIMINYAKA engaphezu kwengu-40 izwe lisongelwa ukhukhulela-ngoqo wenuzi. Kwathi ngo-1989, uDonga LwaseBerlin lwadilizwa—isenzakalo esaba isandulela sokuwa kobuKhomanisi baseSoviet. Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, imibuso emikhulu yayisivumelene ngokuthi izoyeka ukucibana ngezikhali. Njengoba “i-Armagedoni” yenuzi yayibonakala iphelile, noma okungenani ihlehlisiwe, izwe lehlisa amaphaphu okwase kuyisikhathi eside ephezulu.
Nokho, ochwepheshe abaningi banomuzwa wokuthi akukabi isikhathi sokwehlisa amaphaphu. Ngo-1998 iwashi elidumile lembubhiso elisesembozweni se-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists layiswa phambili ngemizuzu emihlanu, kwasala imizuzu engu-9 ngaphambi kokuba kube phakathi kwamabili—okwakubonisa ngokucacile ukuthi usongo lwenuzi lwalungakapheli.a Yiqiniso, isimo sezwe sishintshile. Akuseyona imibuso emibili emikhulu kuphela enezikhali zenuzi esongelana ngempi yenuzi. Manje maningana amazwe anezikhali zenuzi! Ngaphezu kwalokho, ochwepheshe banovalo lokuthi linye nje ilanga lapho iqembu elithile lamaphekula liyothola khona imikhiqizo yenuzi futhi lizakhele ibhomu le-athomu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, nakuba esenciphise kakhulu, amazwe ase-United States neRussia asenamaqoqo asabekayo amabhomu enuzi acitshwayo. Ngokweqembu labacwaningi elibizwa ngokuthi i-Committee on Nuclear Policy, kunezikhali zenuzi ezilinganiselwa ku-5 000 ezicushiwe. Umbiko waleli qembu uthi: “Ngakho-ke, uma kungakhishwa umyalo wokuba ihlome, emizuzwini nje embalwa amabhomu acitshwayo [izikhali ezitshuzayo ezingadabula amazwekazi] angu-4 000 (angu-2 000 ohlangothini ngalunye) angabe esecitshiwe, futhi ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho alandelwe amanye amabhomu acitshwayo angu-1 000 [izikhali ezitshuzayo ezicitshwa imikhumbi-ngwenya].”
Ukuba khona kwalezi zikhali kungabangela ukugqashuka kwempi ngokungazelelwe noma ngenhloso. Umphaki wempi oqavile waseRussia, uVladimir Belous waxwayisa: “Ngokuphambene nezifiso zabaholi bezombangazwe, isenzakalo esingalindelekile esiwujuqu singafaka izwe obishini lwenhlekelele yenuzi.” Ngakho nakuba iMpi Yomshoshaphansi isiphelile, usongo lukakhukhulela-ngoqo wenuzi alukapheli. Kodwa lukhulu kangakanani ngempela lolo songo? Ingabe ziyoke ziqedwe izikhali zenuzi emhlabeni? Izihloko ezilandelayo zizoxoxa ngale ndaba.
[Umbhalo waphansi]
a Iwashi lembubhiso elisesembozweni se-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists liwuphawu lokuthi kucatshangwa ukuthi izwe selisondele kangakanani empini yenuzi eyogqashuka “phakathi kwamabili.” Phakathi namashumi eminyaka adlule, kuye kwalungiswa uthi lwemizuzu lwaleli washi ukuze lubonise ushintsho esimweni sezwe sezombangazwe.
[Umthombo Wesithombe ekhasini 3]
Explosions on pages 2 and 3: U.S. National Archives photo