Impi Yenuzi—Obani Abawusongo?
“Ithuba lokuqothulwa kwesintu ngezikhali zenuzi likhona impela. Kuyinto esenge-nzeka namuhla, . . . naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi iMpi Yomshoshaphansi yaphela eminya-keni engaphezu kweyishumi edlule.”—URobert S. McNamara owayekade enguNgqongqoshe Wezokuvikela e-United States kanye noJames G. Blight, uprofesa wezobudlelwano namanye amazwe e-Watson Institute for International Studies.
NGO-1991 lapho iMpi Yomshoshaphansi iphela, uthi lwewashi lembubhiso olubonisa imizuzu lwahlehliselwa emuva ngemizuzu engu-17 ngaphambi “kwelamabili.” Isithombe sewashi losuku lwembubhiso sivela esembozweni sikamagazini i-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists futhi sibonisa ukuthi umhlaba ususondele kangakanani (kwelamabili) esikhathini okucatshangwa ukuthi impi yenuzi iyogadla ngaso. Ngaleso sikhathi, uthi lwahlehliswa kakhulu ngendlela eyayingakaze ibonwe selokhu kwasungulwa leli washi ngo-1947. Nokho, kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, lolu thi luye lwaqala ukuya phambili futhi. Ngokwesibonelo, ngo-February 2002, isikhathi saleli washi sasondezwa ngemizuzu engu-7 ngaphambi kwamabili, kwabe kungokwesithathu lisondezwa selokhu kwaphela iMpi Yomshoshaphansi.
Yini eyenza abanyathelisi balowo magazini wezesayensi baba nomuzwa wokuyisa leli washi phambili? Kungani benomuzwa wokuthi impi yenuzi isewusongo? Futhi, ubani osongela ukuthula?
Imfihlo “Ngokuncishiswa”
I-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ichaza ukuthi “kunezikhali zenuzi ezingaphezu kuka-31 000 ezingakalahlwa.” Iyaqhubeka: “Amaphesenti angu-95 alezi zikhali ase-United States naseRussia, futhi ezingaphezu kuka-16 000 zimiswe ngomumo.” Abanye bangase baphawule ukuthi sengathi kukhona okushaya amanzi ngesibalo sezikhali zenuzi ezikhona. Kanti la mazwe ayizikhondlakhondla zenuzi ayengazange yini amemezele ukuthi ayesezinciphisile izikhali zawo ngalinye lasala nezingu-6 000?
Nansi-ke imfihlo “ngokuncishiswa.” Umbiko we-Carnegie Endowment for International Peace uyachaza: “Isibalo esingu-6 000 sezikhali ezibaliwe sisebenzisa imithetho ethile yokubala okuvunyelenwe ngayo esivumelwanweni se-START [Strategic Arms Reduction Talks]. Womabili la mazwe ayoqhubeka enezinkulungwane zezikhali ezisetshenziswayo kanye nezigcinelwe ukuvala isikhala esingavuleka.” (Omalukeke sizenzele.) Ngokwe-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “eziningi zezikhali zase-United States uma kungezona zonke ezisuswa ezinqolobaneni zezikhali ezisetshenziswayo ngeke zihlakazwe kunalokho zizogcinwa (kanye nezinye izikhali ezingaba ngu-5 000 ezase zigciniwe kakade).”
Ngakho ngaphezu kwezinkulungwane zezikhali ezigciniwe ezingasetshenziswa noma nini ekuhlaseleni izindawo eziyizingqalasizinda—ezingacitshwa zisuke kwelinye izwekazi ziye kwelinye ngokuqondile—kukhona izinkulungwane zamabhomu enuzi kanye nezinye izikhali zenuzi ezicushiwe kakade eziklanyelwe ukuba zigadle ezindaweni eziseduze. Ngokungangabazeki, la mazwe amabili ayizikhondlakhondla zezikhali zenuzi asenezikhali zenuzi ezinqolobaneni zawo ezanele ukubhubhisa bonke abantu emhlabeni ngokuphindaphindiwe! Ukunakekela inani elikhulu kangako lezikhali eziyingozi kungolunye usongo—ukudedeleka ngengozi kwezikhali zenuzi ezicitshwayo.
Impi Yenuzi Engaba Khona Ngengozi
NgokukaRobert S. McNamara noJames G. Blight abacashunwe ngaphambili “amabutho ase-United States ezikhali zenuzi abelokhu elawulwa yisimiso esithi ‘gadla lapho uthola inhlabamkhosi.’ ” Kusho ukuthini lokhu? Bayachaza: “Izikhali zethu zihlala zilungele ukucitshwa noma nini uma kwenzeka izikhali zaseRussia ziba semoyeni.” Babe sebenezela: “Ngokwalesi simiso, ngeke kuphele imizuzu engaphezu kwengu-15 kusukela ekufikeni kwenhlabamkhosi yokuqala ethi iRussia iyahlasela kuya ekudedelweni kwezikhali zethu ezicitshwayo.” Ngokwesinye isikhulu sangaphambili sezikhali zenuzi zase-United States ezicushelwe ukugadla ezindaweni eziyizingqalasizinda, “empeleni zonke izikhali ezisezweni zimi ngomumo kangangokuthi zingacitshwa ngemizuzu emibili.”
Lokhu kuma ngomumo kuveza ithuba lokudedelwa ngengozi kwezikhali ezicitshwayo elingadalwa inhlabamkhosi eyiphutha. Isihloko esithile kuyi-U.S.News & World Report sichaza ukuthi “ezikhathini ezingaphezu kwesisodwa, kuye kwadluliselwa ngephutha imiyalo yangempela ethi makucitshwe izikhali ngesikhathi amabutho aseMelika ezikhali zenuzi ezivivela.” Izinhlabamkhosi ezinje eziyiphutha ziye zaba khona naseRussia. Lapho irokhethi yezokucwaninga yaseNorway iveza inhlabamkhosi eyiphutha ngo-1995, umongameli waseRussia waqala inqubo yokuciba izikhali zenuzi.
Leli su lokuhlala nezikhali ezicushiwe liyingcindezi enkulu kulabo abenza izinqumo. Ngenhlanhla, esikhathini esidlule abakhuzi bamabutho baye baqaphela ukuthi lezi zinhlabamkhosi zaziyiphutha, okuye kwanqanda impi yenuzi kuze kube manje. Ngokuqondene nesehlakalo sango-1979, umcwaningi othile wachaza: “Okwamisa izikhali zaseMelika [ukuba zingacitshwa] yiziphuphutheki zethu eziyizinhlabamkhosi, ezabonisa ukuthi kwakungekho zikhali zaseSoviet emoyeni.” Nokho, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ziyawohloka lezi ziphuphutheki. Abacwaningi nabahlaziyi bakhathazeke ngokuthi “eziningi zalezi ziphuphutheki eziyizinhlabamkhosi zaseRussia azisasebenzi noma-ke ziphumile emzileni wazo.” Ngakho, njengoba iphini lomkhuzi wamabutho lase-United States eselithathe umhlalaphansi lasho eminyakeni eminingana edlule, “ithuba lokugadla kuqala noma lokudedela izikhali ngenxa yokuqonda ngokungeyikho, ngenxa yegunya elinikezwe umuntu ongafanele noma ngengozi likhulu kakhulu namuhla kunanini ngaphambili.”
Amalungu Amasha Eqenjini Lamazwe Anezikhali Zenuzi
Nakuba izinqolobane ezinkulu zezikhali zenuzi zingezamazwe amabili ayizikhondlakhondla zezikhali zenuzi, ikhona neminye imibuso njengeChina, iFrance neGreat Britain enazo lezi zikhali. La mazwe okwaziwayo ukuthi anezikhali zenuzi asanda kwamukela izwe laseNdiya nelasePakistan njengamalungu amasha eqenjini lawo. Ngaphandle kwala mazwe, kunamanye amaningana kuhlanganise nelakwa-Israel, ngokuvamile achazwa ngokuthi afuna—noma kungenzeka ukuthi asenazo kakade—izikhali zenuzi.
Ukungaboni ngaso linye kwezombangazwe okuhilela noma yiliphi lala mazwe anezikhali zenuzi, kuhlanganise nala malungu amasha, kungaholela empini yenuzi. “Isimo esishubile phakathi kwelaseNdiya nelasePakistan . . . sibonisa indlela okwasala kancane ngayo ukuba amazwe amabili asuse impi yenuzi ngemva kokuShuba Kwesimo Ngezikhali ECuba,” kuchaza i-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Ngenxa yesimo esasishubile ekuqaleni kuka-2002, abantu abaningi babenovalo lokuthi ukuhlasela ngezikhali zenuzi kungaba yinto engenzeka ngempela.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwakhiwa kwezinye izikhali ezibulala uyaca kuye kwaveza amathuba amaningi okusebenzisa ibhomu lenuzi. Lapho idingida umbiko oyimfihlo wePentagon, i-New York Times yathi “ukusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi ukuthena amandla ezikhali zesitha zamagciwane, zamakhemikhali nezinye izikhali ezibulala uyaca” kungenzeka sekuyingxenye yenqubo yezwe laseMelika yezikhali zenuzi.
Ukuhlasela kwamaphekula e-United States ngo-September 11, 2001, kwaqaphelisa umhlaba ngolunye usongo lwenuzi. Abaningi manje bakholelwa ukuthi izinhlangano zamaphekula zizama ukwakha—noma kungenzeka sezinazo kakade—izikhali zenuzi. Kungenzeka kanjani lokho?
Amaphekula “Nezikhali Zenuzi Zokuzenzela”
Kungenzeka yini ukwakha ibhomu lenuzi usebenzisa izinto ezithengiswa ngomgunyathi? Ngokukamagazini i-Time, impendulo inguyebo. Lo magazini wabika ngethimba elajutshelwa ukuba linqande ubuphekula benuzi. Kwamanje, leli thimba “selakhe angaphezu kweshumi nambili” amabhomu okuzenzela lisebenzisa “ubuchwepheshe obusezincwadini ezitholakala ezitolo ezivamile ezidayisa izinto zikagesi kanye nohlobo lwezinto zenuzi ezidayiswa ngomgunyathi.”
Ukuncishiswa kwezikhali zenuzi nokuhlakazwa kwazo kuye kwandisa amathuba okweba izinto zenuzi. “Ukususa izinkulungwane zezikhali zenuzi eRussia ezikhalini eziqashwe ngeso lokhozi, ezindizeni zokujikijela amabhomu, nasemikhumbini-ngwenya bese zinqwatshelaniswa ezindaweni ezingaqashiwe kangako kuzenza zibe yisilingo kumaphekula azimisele,” kusho umagazini i-Time. Uma izingxenye zezikhali zenuzi ezihlakaziwe zitholwa iqembu elincane labantu bese zihlanganiswa futhi, kungakabiphi lelo qembu lingaba phakathi kwamazwe anezikhali zenuzi!
Umagazini i-Peace ugomela ngokuthi akudingekile ngisho nokuba wakhe ibhomu ukuze ube yilungu lamazwe anezikhali zenuzi. Okudingekayo nje ukuthola i-uranium noma i-plutonium eyanele. Lo magazini uthi: “Amaphekula ane-uranium yohlobo olufanele ukwenza izikhali zanamuhla angaba nethuba elihle lokwakha isiqhumane ngokumane nje afake ingxenye yayo kwenye.” Zingakanani izakhi zenuzi ezithuthukisiwe ezidingekayo? Ngokwalo magazini, “amakhilogremu amathathu nje kuphela anele.” Cishe yisilinganiso esingangalesi esashaqwa kubashushumbisi ababoshwa ngo-1994 eCzech Republic!
Amanyela enuzi nawo angaba olunye uhlobo lwezikhali zenuzi. I-American Spectator ithi “into ekhathaza izazi ngempela inhlanganisela eyingozi yamanyela anemisebe yenuzi kanye neziqhumane ezivamile.” Izikhali zalolu hlobo, imishini ekhipha imisebe yenuzi, zaziwa ngokuthi izikhali zokuzenzela noma amabhomu omgunyathi. Ziyingozi kangakanani? Amabhomu okuzenzela asebenzisa “iziqhumane ezivamile eziyingozi kakhulu ezikhipha imisebe yenuzi ewubuthi kwabayizisulu esikhundleni sokuba zibabulale ngokubaqhumisa nokubashisa,” kuchaza i-IHT Asahi Shimbun. Iyaqhubeka: “Imiphumela yawo kubantu ingaba yizifo ezidalwa ukuchayeka emisebeni yenuzi, kuye ekufeni kancane kancane okubuhlungu.” Yize abanye bethi ukusebenzisa amanyela enuzi atholakala kalula akukwazi ukudala umonakalo omkhulu, kodwa ukutholakala ngomgunyathi kwezakhi zenuzi ethuthukisiwe kwenza abantu abaningi bakhathazeke. Ngokwenhlolo-vo esanda kwenziwa emhlabeni wonke, amaphesenti angaphezu kuka-60 abo bonke abantu abasabelile anomuzwa wokuthi ubuphekula bezikhali zenuzi buzovela kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Akungabazeki ukuthi usongo lwenuzi lusengokoqobo emhlabeni. I-Guardian Weekly yaseBrithani ka-January 16-22, 2003, yathi: “Ithuba lokuba i-United States iphendukele ezikhalini zenuzi likhulu kunangezinsuku impi yomshoshaphansi eyayishube kakhulu ngazo. . . . I-United States iya ngokuya yandisa izizathu zokuthethelela impi yenuzi.” Ngakho-ke, kunengqondo ukubuza: Ingabe impi yenuzi ingagwenywa? Likhona yini ithemba lomhlaba ongenalo usongo lwenuzi? Le mibuzo izophendulwa esihlokweni esilandelayo.
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Ingabe Kuqala Inkathi Yesibili Yenuzi?
Ebhala kuyi-New York Times Magazine, umlobeli wayo uBill Keller (manje ongumhleli ongumqondisi we-New York Times) waveza umbono wokuthi izizwe sezingene enkathini yesibili yenuzi. Eyokuqala yaphela ngo-January 1994, lapho i-Ukraine ivuma ukunikezela izikhali eyayizithole njengefa ezweni elaliyiSoviet Union. Kungani ekhuluma ngenkathi yesibili yenuzi?
UKeller uyabhala: “Inkathi yesibili yenuzi yethulwa ukundindizela okwazwakala emathunjini ogwadule lwaseRajasthan ngo-1998, lapho uhulumeni owawusanda kumiswa waseNdiya wamaHindu ashisekela ubuzwe uqhumisa iziqhumane zokuhlola ezinhlanu. Emasontweni amabili kamuva iPakistan yalandela.” Yini eyenza ukuba lokhu kuhlola kuhluke kokwenkathi yokuqala yenuzi? “Lezi kwakuyizikhali zenuzi ezaziklanywe kucatshangwa ngezwe elithile.”
Khona-ke, ingabe umhlaba ungazizwa uphephile ngokuba namalungu amabili engeziwe angazibekile phansi eqenjini lamazwe anezikhali zenuzi? UKeller uyaqhubeka: “Izwe ngalinye elithola izikhali zenuzi landisa ithuba lokuba kube khona impi ehilela izwe elinezikhali zenuzi.”—“Okungenzeka,” The New York Times Magazine, May 4, 2003, ikhasi 50.
Lesi simo sishubiswa ngokwengeziwe izindaba ezithi kungenzeka ukuthi iNyakatho Korea “ine-plutonium eyanele ukuthi ingakha amabhomu amasha enuzi ayisithupha. . . . Usuku ngalunye liyakhula ithuba lokuba iNyakatho Korea iphumelele ekukhiqizeni izikhali ezintsha zenuzi, futhi mhlawumbe ize ihlole esinye sazo ukuze ibone ukuthi siyasebenza yini.”—The New York Times, July 18, 2003.
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Iziphuphutheki ezindala eziyizi-nhlabamkhosi ziyawohloka
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AP Photo/Dennis Cook
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Isikhulu sikahulumeni sibonisa “ipotimende” eliyibhomu-mbumbulu lenuzi
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NASA photo
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Earth: NASA photo