Kungani Kudingeka Imithombo Emisha Yamandla?
“Uma sicabanga ukuthi kunzima ukuthola uwoyela manje, ake silinde iminyaka engu-20 ezayo. Kuyoba nzima nakakhulu.”—UJeremy Rifkin, we-Foundation of Economic Trends, eWashington, D.C., ngo-August 2003.
PHAKATHI neminyaka engaba ngu-20 ezayo—ngaleso sikhathi uMicah osemncane uyobe esekhule ngokwanele ukuba ashayele imoto—ukusetshenziswa kwemithombo yamandla emhlabeni wonke “kulindeleke ukuba kwande ngamaphesenti angu-58,” kusho umbiko kahulumeni wase-United States i-International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003). Umagazini i-New Scientist ubiza lokhu kwanda okubikezelwayo ngokuthi “ukwanda kwesidingo semithombo yamandla okungakaze kube khona emlandweni.” Ingabe imithombo evamile yamandla ingakwazi ukwanelisa lesi sidingo ngokuphumelelayo? Cabangela la maqiniso asangulukisayo.
AMALAHLE:
◼ Kuzo zonke izinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi, amalahle yiwo atholakala ngobuningi, futhi kulinganiselwa ukuthi akhona anele ukuba asetshenziswe kule minyaka eyinkulungwane ezayo. Emhlabeni wonke, iziteshi zikagesi ezisebenza ngamalahle zikhiqiza cishe amaphesenti angu-40 kagesi osetshenziswa emhlabeni wonke. I-Australia ihamba phambili emhlabeni ekudayiseni amalahle, ikhiqiza cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu zamalahle adayiswa emhlabeni.
Nokho, umbiko wezindaba wamuva nje we-Worldwatch Institute uthi: “Amalahle awumkhiqizo wokubasa ombiwa phansi ogcwele i-carbon kakhulu kunayo yonke, futhi akhiqiza amaphesenti angu-29 esilinganiso samandla e-carbon kunakhiqizwa uwoyela namaphesenti angu-80 kunakhiqizwa igesi yemvelo. Akhipha amaphesenti angu-43 ayo yonke i-carbon ephumela emkhathini emhlabeni wonke ngonyaka—okungamathani alinganiselwa ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2,7.” Ngaphandle nje kokuthi amalahle anengxenye ekuwohlokeni kwemvelo, angayilimaza kangakanani impilo yabantu? Ngokwesibonelo, umbiko wamuva nje weZizwe Ezihlangene kuyi-Global Environment Outlook uthi: “EChina, umusi nezinhlayiyana eziphuma lapho kubaswa amalahle zibangela ukuba abantu abangaphezu kuka-50 000 bafe ngaphambi kwesikhathi futhi kwenza abantu abangu-400 000 ngonyaka babe nesifo sokucinana kwemigudu yomoya emadolobheni amakhulu angu-11 alelo zwe.”
UWOYELA ONGAHLUZIWE:
◼ Njengamanje emhlabeni kusetshenziswa imiphongolo kawoyela eyizigidi ezingu-75 ngosuku. Emithonjeni yemvelo kawoyela yomhlaba wonke, okwakulinganiselwa ukuthi iyimiphongolo eyizigidi eziyizigidi ezimbili, cishe sekusetshenziswé imiphongolo engaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-900 kakade. Uma kubhekwa izinga uwoyela okhiqizwa ngalo manje, kubikezelwa ukuthi imithombo yawo iyoqhubeka ikhona eminye iminyaka engu-40.
Nokho, ngo-1998, izazi zokwakheka komhlaba uColin J. Campbell noJean H. Laherrère zathi: “Phakathi neminyaka eyishumi ezayo, imithombo kawoyela ongahluziwe ngeke ikwazi ukwanelisa izidingo ezikhona.” Lab’ ochwepheshe bemboni kawoyela baxwayisa: “Kunombono ovamile oyiphutha wokuthi ibhakede lokugcina likawoyela lingadonswa enhlabathini ngokushesha ngendlela okugcwaliswa ngayo imiphongolo emithonjeni kawoyela namuhla. Empeleni, izinga noma yimuphi umthombo—noma izwe—elingakhiqiza ngalo uwoyela liyenyuka lize lifike esilinganisweni esithile esiphakame, bese kuthi lapho sekudonswe ingxenye yawo, liqale ukwehla kancane kancane kuze kube yilapho kungasasele lutho. Kwezomnotho, ukuthi uwoyela uphela nini nyá emhlabeni akubalulekile ngempela: into esemqoka ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwawo kuyoqala nini ukwehla.”
Kulindeleke ukuba ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela kuqale nini ukwehla? Isazi sokumbiwa kukawoyela uJoseph Riva sithi ‘uwoyela owengeziwe okuhlongozwa ukuba ukhiqizwe awufinyeleli nesigamu sesilinganiso sikawoyela odingekayo ukuze umhlaba wonke ukwazi ukuthola uwoyela i-IEA [International Energy Agency] ebikezela ukuthi uyodingeka ngo-2010.’ I-New Scientist iyaxwayisa: “Uma amazinga okukhiqiza uwoyela ehla kuyilapho izinga odingeka ngalo likhula, intengo yawo cishe iyokumba eqolo noma iguquguquke kakhulu, okuyokwandisa amathuba ezinkinga zomnotho, izinkinga zokuthuthwa kokudla nezinye izinto, ngisho nokusongela kwempi njengoba amazwe elwela ingcosana kawoyela osele.”
Nakuba abanye abahlaziyi becabanga ukuthi ukuphela kukawoyela kuyinkinga, abanye banomuzwa wokuthi kudingeka sikwazi ukuzimela ngokushesha singathembeli kuwo. Ebhala kuyi-Utne Reader, uJeremiah Creedon uthi: “Okuwukuphela kwento embi kunokuphelelwa uwoyela ukuqhubeka kwawo ukhona. Isikhutha esisibangelayo ngokushisa uwoyela siyaqhubeka sifudumeza iplanethi, kodwa ezomnotho nokonakaliswa kwemvelo kusabhekwa njengezinto ezimbili ezingahlobene.” Iqokomisa imiphumela yokuthembela kwezwe elithile kuwoyela, i-Australian Broadcasting Commission iyabika: “Izimoto eziyizigidi ezingu-26 e-United Kingdom zikhipha ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu zaso sonke isikhutha esitholakala e-United Kingdom (esibangela ukushisa kwembulunga) futhi zibangela ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu zako konke ukungcoliswa komoya e-United Kingdom (okubulala abantu abangaba ngu-10 000 unyaka ngamunye).”
IGESI YEMVELO:
◼ Umbiko we-IEO2003 uthi phakathi neminyaka engaba ngu-20 ezayo, “kuthiwa igesi yemvelo iyoba umthombo wamandla okhula ngokushesha emhlabeni wonke.” Igesi yemvelo iwumkhiqizo ombiwa phansi ohlanzeke kunayo yonke uma ushiswa, futhi kucatshangwa ukuthi umhlaba unemithombo emikhulu yegesi yemvelo.
Kodwa i-Natural Gas Supply Association eseWashington, D.C., ithi: “Akekho owaziyo ngempela ukuthi ingakanani igesi yemvelo ekhona kuze kube yilapho isikhishwa. Ukulinganisela ngakunye kusekelwe emibonweni ehlukene . . . Ngakho kunzima ukuthola impendulo eqondile embuzweni wokuthi ingakanani igesi yemvelo ekhona.”
Igesi yemvelo yakhiwa ngokuyinhloko i-methane, “eyigesi enamandla amakhulu okubamba ukushisa emkhathini. Empeleni, inhlangano ecashunwe ekuqaleni ithi i-methane inamandla aphindwe izikhathi ezingaba ngu-21 okubamba ukushisa kunesikhutha.” Noma kunjalo, le ngosi ithi ucwaningo olunzulu olwenziwa yi-Environmental Protection Agency ne-Gas Research Institute “lwaphetha ngokuthi ukuncipha kokungcoliswa komoya ngenxa yokusebenzisa igesi yemvelo kakhudlwana kungcono kakhulu kunemiphumela eyingozi ebangelwa ukusetshenziswa kwe-methane kakhudlwana.”
UMTHOMBO WAMANDLA E-ATHOMU:
◼ “Kuneziteshi zamandla enuzi ezingaba ngu-430 eziphakela amaphesenti angaba ngu-16 omhlaba ngogesi,” kubika i-Australian Geographic. Ngaphandle kwalezi ziteshi ezikhona, umbiko we-IEO2003 uthi: “Phakathi kweziteshi ezingu-35 ezazakhiwa emhlabeni wonke ngo-February 2003, ezingu-17 zazisemazweni asathuthuka ase-Asia.”
Abantu basaqhubeka bethembela emandleni enuzi yize kunethuba lezinhlekelele, njengaleyo eyenzeka ngo-1986 eChernobyl ezweni elaliyiSoviet Union. I-New Scientist ibika ukuthi “iziteshi zamandla enuzi ezikhona manje eMelika zigcwele imifantu futhi zigqwalile” kanti futhi ithi ngo-March 2002, isiteshi saseDavis-Besse e-Ohio “sacishe saqhuma” ngenxa yezinkinga ezibangelwa ukugqwala futhi lokho “kwakuyoletha inhlekelele enkulu.”
Uma kubhekwa ukulinganiselwa kwemithombo yamandla nezingozi zokusetshenziswa kwayo, umuntu angase abuze, Ingabe isintu siyogcina ngokuba siwonakalise ngokuphelele umhlaba njengoba sifuna ukwanelisa isidingo saso esibonakala singapheli semithombo yamandla? Kusobala ukuthi sidinga eminye imithombo ehlanzekile, enokwethenjelwa. Ingabe ikhona imithombo enjalo futhi singakwazi yini ukuyikhokhela?